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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。- I) G# ^& n# [0 X+ [3 y
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？% Y2 V; x0 V" v0 ?' h* e
2 W# ^; l# @! _4 l7 A9 E开局艰难，但历史看好牛市* r! `& D, t# }& E" _& f% P' H* ?
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。 \) b) z6 \# _ w
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来源：Alphractal* K, |& k8 U7 C4 C9 J. F! Y
7 U# H1 _" i* k! H( F5 B# I15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。8 X4 D1 f) P7 f/ m
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。. r4 y2 c9 Z: p+ ?+ [/ t2 {
@$ t3 O' \6 U8 E3 X事情变得有趣了
A% {+ _+ o" g2 ~+ [) j, U* j' I. `, hBTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X
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5 K/ g4 p4 F$ w3 j根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。1 ~9 _8 d- t+ g! z* E! M1 }
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。+ H) K; B4 u' d* b6 n' l
) m# K& C& O: B0 q; Y! F正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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- n6 C1 \+ C+ w( u) P随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。. r8 D5 t) [ s$ g
: X0 W4 Z% l, P9 n$ J: u1 w& `空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
& _ m5 P6 J" f6 F# y经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。! t" \; E; l" u
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来源：TradingView
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日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。& B# D4 w. s2 K1 s
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然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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