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加密市场预测：比特币突破11.4万美元 加密货币市值在美国通胀数据公布前攀升-转
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周四，比特币突破11.4万美元，推动整体加密货币市值上涨2%，因为交易者在美国关键通胀报告公布前积极布局。 美国劳工统计局预计将于东部时间9月11日上午8点30分发布8月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据。该数据对数字资产市场具有重要影响，投资者密切关注美联储是否会在9月16日至17日的会议上宣布降息。 根据FactSet的调查，经济学家预计8月CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比上涨2.9%。剔除食品和能源的核心通胀年率预计为3.1%。
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% c1 s* l% O$ t2 z9 m比特币现货ETF录得7.57亿美元净流入若通胀数据低于预期，将进一步加大美联储降息的压力，降幅可能高达50个基点。这类举措通常会削弱美元、使资金撤出债券市场，并转向加密货币和股票等风险资产。 加密市场已率先反应。以太坊上涨2%，至4,401美元；Solana、BNB 与 Hype 等山寨币表现更为强劲，其中BNB与Hype均创下历史新高。 現貨交易型基金也出現强劲资金流入。9月10日，比特币现货ETF录得净流入7.57亿美元，连续第三天实现正向流入。以太坊ETF同期吸引了1.72亿美元资金，其中BlackRock的ETHA单日净流入达7,450万美元。
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尽管官员保持谨慎，市场对降息预期升温市场参与者表示，自7月通胀报告显示物价压力缓解以来，市场情绪持续升温。若联准会决定降息，这一趋势将进一步延续，尽管多位官员仍持谨慎态度。上次政策会议纪要指出，就业增长放缓与关税推动的通胀令人担忧，并警告资产价格已处于高位。 美联储主席鲍威尔虽多次拒绝前总统唐纳德·特朗普提出的深度降息要求，但在杰克逊霍尔会议上也承认当前环境“可能合理化”宽松政策。 交易员们如今将即将发布的CPI数据视为下周政策决定前的最后一个关键参考指标。 % L! h8 G$ Z! n* {5 Y5 I
5 M( o6 F9 k! @0 a& Y$ i% A. D生产者物价下跌，提振通胀降温预期早前公布的生产者物价数据显示，8月出现意外下滑，主要由于服务成本下降，进一步增强了市场对通胀正在降温的预期。 这一结果不仅对比特币有影响。以太坊和其他第一层区块链网络对美国货币政策变动非常敏感，而山寨币则常在流动性轮动期间出现更大幅度的波动。如果美联储转向鸽派，预计将带动整个加密市场进一步上涨。 与此同时，若CPI数据强于预期，可能会推迟或缩小降息的空间，从而抑制近期的加密货币涨势。 , [4 X% Q- i3 d5 r9 T2 w
目前，加密市场的交易表现显示出市场普遍预期宽松政策即将到来，投资者正押注美联储的政策转向将在未来几个月内支撑创纪录的资产估值。
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