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本帖最后由 凯利之王 于 2009-7-13 09:48 编辑. [) W4 v5 G c0 G, L
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2 F" c/ C+ Y2 h) i, I' r H0 r凯利指数的计算方法： ( O1 m2 a L3 d; F& D k4 w! w) ]# I/ A2 u2 q( I
- h$ p! p F' e, E1 \9 JG3=S*S',G1=B*B',G0=F*F';(S:胜赔，B:平赔，F:负赔,S'欧平均胜率，B'欧平均平率，F'欧平均负率)5 \' u% F j8 o8 y* Y
什么？对于一家特定的公司，它的主胜的凯利指数G3=S*S'！你选择的公司样本不同，G值就不同，样本大小不同，G值也不同（一般的欧均值都取99家公司，从统计学的意义上来讲，还称不上样本！）这个G带有随意性，大个0.05小个0.08之类的，也只能算做误差，现在要我比较G与0.89哪个大？我大你个0.05怎么了？我小你个0.08又有什么干系? H% P+ \' B9 l U8 T. [# c( O& f, k% o) L. E
( t) W4 H" U4 q- T1 @8 r$ I) ]& t" ]0 @) w! L( u* H% h
8 p2 A# k+ @. m4 S既然涉及到平均胜率，那么看一下胜率是怎么求出来的：平均主胜率S'=(S1'+S2'+….Sn')/n，S1'是第一家公司的主胜率，S2'是第二家公司的主胜率，以此类推。主胜率S'=r/S(r:赔付率)。赔付率（返还率）又是这样求的：r=1/(1/S+1/B+1/F)，什么？？又做梦了！！返还率是庄家也要到裁判终场哨响才知道的，这样也行？？AC米兰踢亚特兰大，哨响了，投注比固定了，但踢出3，这场返还率可能是150%，踢出1可能是20%，踢出0，可能是5%，结果不同，返还率也不同啊！这里也可以看到，博彩公司不喜欢操控比赛，因为他想操控的只能是这种强弱分明的比赛，但强队踢假球的成本更高，它想操控也操控不了，最好的选择就是烧烧香：天哪，爆个冷吧！ 2 y7 G, }) _! p0 \
7 e6 Z/ _5 C5 S: K8 T8 s- I% g4 q- e* m5 ?2 ~3 j
做下算术了： 2 i( y$ \ W: ~: {8 \" ` H2 m; \( s+ g9 T0 I' |* @4 n
; ~' L. y! k5 F, M& W+ d+ d3 R/ |' |3 a4 Y
(1)SSP： 2.22 3.15 3.01 : `4 u/ N9 a2 y W3 e8 }9 n
! r$ P+ q( l" K- l6 l) Y) b
; u5 j. j9 n% G P" t$ P* l' o(2)立博： 2.10 3.25 3.00 ' k8 j& D0 A' b6 F# x9 |% T
# J2 h) d! e, `% c
(3)威廉： 2.20 3.10 2.87 : D' ~# K. v* J, ^* k$ [ t# M8 G( `' a3 B+ {7 p
! c' s% C& W) X, X5 X1 M/ b% T
(4)易胜博：2.25 3.10 2.95 + Y( _. W2 y- [% \9 y
- U+ {+ l. `) m% ~. _
& `4 c. x( V! {# g1 Q; X/ b9 z我们假设就取这四家公司为某场比赛开出的赔率来计算凯利值 + M: }% x; q( G, b
5 F8 F, p$ }' ]( i% c# U6 h6 j+ Q$ }6 ]4 `
S1=2.22 B1=3.15 F1=3.01
$ a; H9 v7 H/ r- G* ?# G3 Y# R% Q
3 e* [, J$ v/ TS2=2.10 B2=3.25 F2=3.00
/ c U. ~3 m) Y) `/ n" w% ^# T/ X4 W2 j% ] s
, v4 q# {7 ]/ y) b& R' n3 F' `9 VS3=2.20 B3=3.10 F3=2.87 . u7 p$ k6 ~+ l+ F) v7 j
9 A' e& q. H7 B1 c9 S5 j1 P+ Q" O. d8 P9 d
S4=2.25 B14=3.10 F4=2.95 ! ~0 p7 C' v# @. v; y G+ \, A# a; a4 Z( q" I
8 w( d5 ` _0 H- N/ h7 V4 v$ M0 N" }2 C6 p+ x$ @3 K' C) K
1/r1=1/S1+1/B1+1/F1=1/2.22+1/3.15+1/3.01 => r1=0.91
& [2 Q9 c- @0 O1 x; ^. {3 A# k* ]
) [8 }. A; t- M1/r2=1/S2+1/B2+1/F2=1/2.10+1/3.25+1/3.00 => r2=0.90 # t0 ?( P e* X% l
N; l' g/ F3 ?) e: g/ S; ?$ `; M/ J4 Y" W( [" J% c
1/r3=1/S3+1/B3+1/F3=1/2.20+1/3.10+1/2.87 => r3=0.89 % h8 r* k9 }8 X/ Q5 J' q
' j" z5 a- a" h5 f* b' R* L0 {' y0 a1 U* O7 N6 M
1/r4=1/S4+1/B4+1/F4=1/2.25+1/3.10+1/2.95 => r4=0.90
3 {6 b- I' \ Q9 `: G+ x9 Y- y- K6 r* ~+ Q8 R# S% V0 a0 N! Q) v$ p# @
S1'=1/(S1*r1)=1/(2.22*0.91)=41 : W# q# m$ g# T
6 ?. m0 m O) l6 S2 {/ n6 i7 e
( v/ H2 s- s% T类似的计算后，于是： # s3 M- z! s6 q8 s- Z8 M j
7 c; R5 D9 |( V' q/ ~
3 E$ ~; X# h; c$ _S1'=41 B1'=29 F1'=30; 7 F7 @. j: F( O% p d
1 }( L, b# h* \; e+ b3 hS2'=43 B2'=28 F2'=30 3 e- T: x' @% _% l" w5 s6 M9 H* d- v; ?, v* z
; m' V% T, u, P% O0 {1 z, @9 m5 h; R
S3'=40 B3'=29 F3'=31 4 i" A" e/ ?" z. d8 \7 q7 z
6 z5 K/ n5 u, C9 L, h+ }+ O/ i% a
7 p# T- W" X) b4 |( q8 |S4'=40 B4'=29 F4'=31
" l( l# }# ~9 v5 U/ p1 G- U: B6 y" Y' M2 }4 T/ O0 g4 ~
: l2 B: [/ d# `(注意：3,4两家公司，赔率不同，但它们的胜，平，负率相同了) 8 [+ b0 b& X# U( [. o
, k8 ~* Z' v8 s: o) G; l; y* R9 Y/ Q" p9 \
/ n8 Q* X6 Y2 W- A+ K6 V! t好：S'=(S1'+S2'+S3'+S4')/4=(41+43+40+40)/4=41
& D5 X3 C5 `4 D* _2 W; h8 D) q( ], k9 L T& t% Y; s1 D5 Q* M$ X. _
B'=(B1'+B2'+B3'+B4')/4=(29+28+29+29)/4=28.75
" {0 y: a% b7 g2 Y4 a$ q {! o8 d& y; [& I2 t
F'=(F1'+F2'+F3'+F4')/4=(30+30+31+31)/4=30.5 # [ d2 r* T. T6 q) k2 A
* b" l& X$ U% f _7 _8 m
于是： / s+ X- G$ g6 i& P E8 u9 j! |0 ?2 ~8 i, ], [; J `& a
9 E ]' p: I. D7 h. {6 M- k' I8 | N: K2 i
G31=S1*S'=2.22*41=91.02 ! B$ E, |, X) y+ M5 g& W# r1 V% n7 l7 ~; C/ |
+ D$ n) P# X# M
( H0 ^2 G* Z; _+ IG11=B1*B'=3.15*28.75=90.56
8 C! b) ~8 k( K* m6 ^$ G5 j
+ t" t. q+ Q$ D) U# d. pG01=F1*F'=3.01*30.5=91.8 2 b6 B# O% q. }" I: W0 ]
( i3 S+ ]( Y3 {: L. {) q0 D1 p/ y
$ I" E+ P' j8 _# i当然其它几家公司的凯利值也可以通过同样的方法求得，当然，事实上你不用去求（每场比赛这样求，不累死也气死了），赔率比较网站上都是这样算的。 好，到这里你应该可以知道了，凯利指数是怎么样被扭曲的了，因为除了赔率是真的，其它的都是做梦的时候梦到的（并非是攻击凯利指数，这个，前文和接下来的一比较就可以发现了）。 + J& N& @* n# J/ ]6 \# L) X2 t( z: O" l$ V5 Q
6 C* |* h W0 f7 S7 s3 A2 @. G$ i
, l5 g6 |: f" c5 S0 i* c5 |通过对多家凯利指数的对比统计分析可以找出,数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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数值变化与赛果之间的微妙关系，在足彩分析投注中能把握更多的冷门机会。 |
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