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小分3种情况:7 a$ Y/ a1 P* ?# x& }1 `' E; j
- K- u% n" l" `' i8 I6 _1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
) b8 C; z* p* I: ^3 b
1 L' v; G1 i6 m9 D2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。2 S8 U( H4 X' c' E+ V% K$ L
+ K. F4 V8 U, x, z3 ^. I3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
' W! X# r, Z$ s* }1 ^5 o9 h& l, S& T# I3 @1 V" h. X
2张牌8或9点的情况有:! h8 K4 j$ d3 d" u1 u! h
! o* |/ v1 | a
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+105 w% n0 q& g3 T3 U! L: q/ P+ I
) N f0 G9 B7 Q# I% }/ d1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
: M0 K; m6 o- Y+ B, i) }, D7 t7 w* P" M. P' b# V! [$ s' N. N
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
$ p( o7 Q; q5 B: N) G/ s6 x# I- h6 p
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415' Y4 R F# u. G3 v
0 H& m$ ]$ w: t4 Y6 x( n
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。4 j Q) j' n- D) V: l/ U
7 [5 s$ J3 v& L+ R& D( z通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。# t; S/ ]6 E# Z3 V; C
8 ^4 Q& n4 S k) x6 G
那么我们可以得出2 b# m+ A; s( @4 y% a* T1 a9 J; q
$ _2 Y" Q' k+ E0 m. }' X: H
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662" o$ c1 @* Q9 j9 _- \# p
4 ^( O5 ~4 @1 a1 ~, H2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
$ \4 a& a# ~0 D
; Q Y5 u* ?0 t2 D p+ g6 ~3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491( n0 G1 l! z$ l' Q7 s1 z, r5 @; z
2 ^4 {' T* _! E5 ]3 N所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323! ~1 J' z5 {2 w- \6 F$ W/ w: }
4 E. O" Q! p( w" g0 j$ Q百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677; D2 g3 v' Q/ a. D2 O, S
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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