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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
9 T! P5 n( b4 A! e6 \     
% v. W2 V, x8 N8 p% d* ~- E6 ?     平手中水,主队有利
' K& d! `/ w# x8 m0 j8 W& L( i# x     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
6 `1 s# C2 R* y% j     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
7 u: X; A5 u6 N: C/ d+ N- G6 {. {: U! n     英超主队
! I  x2 y( h' G' F4 P     胜:13场 48%! C' R7 V: L5 n; s# B( x3 t
     平:5场 17%
7 v. R: ]* a# }     负:9场 35%9 c1 i) E8 c! I3 c6 G4 |( e
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。! `8 o' A# U' @
     
! a. L, k( E2 F; A$ J! X) i% \     一、初盘阶段; p8 n3 N$ F0 P( {
     具体到水位如下:8 A0 j! l' b" w" A* @
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
2 s5 Y' P$ {* D/ X; F! p     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负, _% y7 `4 m0 W. E; V( b3 ^
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
7 I$ A+ n+ I* |) W# c, Q" T  Z# S* Q     
+ ?: v- m( [: N  d* M1 O     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。2 T# c2 c. N* t# m; m7 \% R
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。: H1 R; Z7 _0 g! [- [! p4 C- j, ~
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
8 p' p, K8 r6 q     ) i3 i! z% M6 x# b$ b
     二、临场阶段
% V/ B" }3 Q* B2 b     
% c3 W9 H0 _  q& `2 f$ t( x. K     具体到变盘和水位如下:
8 X; N: a+ n9 }4 W3 ~3 }* {9 K     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负" q8 r6 _1 _, w5 D/ ?' A/ |. P% I/ A! P
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
* y: w+ V: l8 t. k# p1 J( h% _7 S     
: f* ?/ [" t6 t) B! w* l5 V     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
( G8 I  J& G; D) d; G     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:" L2 [/ n1 u. D3 i/ q* ~' @
     & ?% |, ~9 g8 Z) F* K
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
+ a! D( A* [' X/ w     初盘:0.82平手1.04' }+ s# ^1 Y: a, V8 l8 T
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
  o5 @, L! A  V     
' }/ U8 K8 ]2 O+ p5 _3 Q2 q! A- M     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
4 M- o7 J0 W0 m     初盘:0.76平手1.10, f0 ?" E1 t: ^, y9 W" ~4 e: D+ d; V
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.917 L! w2 \5 k7 k: T1 \. V( m5 T% \
     
: t4 S/ r8 E( O8 L     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
2 l+ j4 l, W0 Y: N- `, u1 a6 R     初盘:0.82平手1.043 D) }2 E4 \, R, m+ B2 Q# V
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
4 E$ }% R3 L* v, `9 W* }+ n4 U     
, B+ j6 c  a5 Q* {$ K) s1 j/ s% U     伯恩利2-1西汉姆0 o% u& E! H5 r4 W  q
     初盘:0.88平手0.985 C( L# F! b" F8 i2 O5 Z
     终盘:1.12平/半0.748 e; E7 U7 S  T; _' s$ r" t
     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。4 P4 X& i; B$ l) C' p
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。( ]5 x4 _: @! T  f2 e
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。1 B7 i! ?6 P; p. h) u
     
! N  U3 b/ b1 f2 i3 `! Z     三、球队表现- k& V0 ^& e0 w) `
     1 Z1 N9 E$ ~5 p- {% c7 r
     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。% Q: c1 x# F6 w. ?' V
     
# f6 P. t# l! I) K# i     四、投注要点
& f1 t6 M4 v1 p) a6 T) f" R     要点1:平手中水、主多不败1 G& i- k) x+ B" L. y! O
     要点2:平手降盘、走两头7 C  Y* |- y% U7 X  R, F$ Q
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
5 [. ^- @7 g$ G% {6 ^$ O     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大: R& x! E# c5 T
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任! b; ]8 j* D* u% N" V5 t6 L0 d. C
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大/ A" S5 o' X8 T$ @4 [7 [/ J% G* \+ ^2 I
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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