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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。
1 b3 C+ }/ Y- l; A T4 uAltcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
{9 X5 Z h- U% N" @, @& J越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。4 I+ `$ U& c" ?' h4 R
你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。
/ i; t& f* J: X F* a& K从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。! x6 N$ v+ {9 t' P
alt/btc: v8 }6 |4 r) c/ Y$ R
alt/usdt6 {' Z" }# ]9 D' i
那么，发生了什么？
1 I# S" k+ ^) e1. 大户轮换资金
5 j, G1 k: L5 L; {7 n% X与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。
0 ]" ?3 F* I, y7 a* u这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。% w9 K4 n/ U6 r) h3 K* Z2 d \$ n
但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。' I4 `3 x# r- t' W+ a. p) t
2. 市场的防御心理
. W& k0 D8 y; ?1 x6 T# C5 P投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。
1 c2 V8 b' B4 F这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。
4 j! L6 |$ `8 ~, u7 d2 Z3. 需要关注的信号* x" ~, i+ y2 s# j) r, ~' k7 n
BTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。' @6 m, z9 {$ ~& J) I- ?& p
山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。( a, r9 G; w7 d, D5 t1 T
USDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。' h2 j1 k& }3 z0 O- p: H
4. 对投资者的意义
8 d* }& L0 Y8 N4 L q U% i+ x在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。# A0 f t4 B1 g) w) O7 m
如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。
( n! U1 t, E) k安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。- T) v, a# V- M! b& w: X8 x0 l
结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。
+ ]$ R, q7 r/ {1 ^ l#加密货币#" u" [1 f2 N0 t" G
3 b G/ D( D, i' }+ C# q |
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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