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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>


0 y& }8 m  Z& s  R3 ~9 ]  ]賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
2 s( O. _" b0 ?/ a1 V10A234567898 I% w5 n) R- F% h
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.159
' Q$ d# @5 N0 W& W0 G. `9 A-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.1467 N" L* b! o* z, m5 {# J" ~0 H
-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
1 P% ?, n/ L+ Y7 [* m-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120
# o' b7 q# q1 X* p4 v-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.108
* d& f% w. g1 T5 j* G+ J-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096: ^. z5 |; Y6 g' P8 J1 r' _/ l
-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085" u. O3 D7 o0 B' Y0 K+ n
-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
$ G+ b: m8 {; X+ s, N" g6 b0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064
1 n9 x6 [) M8 L% R% _/ K' f1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054$ ?+ e# |8 p! L+ B
2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.045
0 K3 N7 o" z* a" B4 q3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036
$ _. v8 r( h/ B  R6 l4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
. m) O0 l3 S' G9 }5 |, [5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020
' ~6 x+ }2 A# d- k3 ~! f' I0 v6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013
/ f" X2 y& @6 {, ?8 ~7 e( z; {* w7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
- e$ X7 l% E! b5 T* x/ K+ O9 K8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001
" M" Y' J0 T8 Y% A7 h# r- ], W9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
$ y6 M" [8 X& S4 s  k10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.992, S/ H) V* G1 u4 X# C5 Z
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.988$ V0 S+ }' ]: d
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985* q/ \, d" j* K- F
13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982( K( ^! s5 d/ {# `* n1 l5 g3 f% j
14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980
. c% N) w* }: v8 c  m5 N4 X15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.979
# [5 v6 ~) L, t1 P1 \/ Y' |1 ~" q16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979& K0 s" j; a9 q; j2 e
17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.9797 R9 Z' f6 U" j! V' m0 X
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979
& N7 G4 y9 Y/ a1 s( e8 s, s19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
7 ^- b; y. m' i" q: K8 F' O20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983
' D5 N( H/ o* A+ Z3 {& J, V/ Q4 d21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.9863 {: \* g2 x$ A/ j% _4 c0 h
22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989' t( x5 A% n* W& Q, D8 f9 e
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
1 h) b: |- D* d6 ^, E  @24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
. F8 R9 g! J( H0 G25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.0024 C% Z- p9 n' u; d( E7 d/ H6 F  C

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


7 M7 H; K0 T! A8 [1 R; l- J表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類7 G' s' S9 v3 A( z$ L+ h( f
10A234567895 x2 j$ h; @: I4 j0 n
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.095( Z8 x( l6 y' ]5 Q/ l' S
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082' a) Z4 {  V8 b- @
-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.069
1 a0 R+ i" M1 w/ C+ _! N8 ]3 D3 M-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.0563 `0 V, o! K  a4 l% C
-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044+ I5 M- f% W, H' ^6 k9 _2 y
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.032
+ W" x9 _* q. H" }-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.021
$ `4 [: {7 N8 o0 c" _-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010- @4 E7 `3 q7 n* e% z4 T) p; g
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0001 J; I8 b  h+ ^" X: w6 e4 B) i
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
8 e# M! M& n; l: {* {6 {2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
2 ]* y' {  D9 w# @, n$ g3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028
4 ?8 e2 ]5 X1 J# K. S: h4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.036
- D4 E& t; V1 q8 f5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
/ B& K, H8 X2 G. s" C+ l8 y6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
4 m, M7 |2 j* E+ u$ `7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057& ]) t2 K+ L, c) f) N
8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063' }) N% E% k; b0 K
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
$ W6 q0 D. `5 j$ C1 f5 `10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
! ]" {* o. o7 M- w) |0 G& `0 A11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
9 ^" @4 M1 G% \& t12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.079
+ Z7 j- \& `* }0 M13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082! B/ y, X; i. O  z9 W( C4 S" h
14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.084
0 W$ O( @3 X& N7 `/ F& T, p4 ~8 m# j& M# j15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.085
9 U0 b1 r* }9 q. p3 y! W  J% A16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085" C. [, E7 `8 k7 Z$ b4 e
17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085
- P& c) E, P, u6 e: Q" S5 l4 n18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085+ S9 h* \- J  }1 i; U
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083
9 {. b- ~2 m1 o" E. ~20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081' I- S, {8 o0 c: I7 {& P) D: w
21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.0788 T4 B- W7 T( f$ |# y( Q% `
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075+ I6 o7 o' K' @( A2 H
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071- z  c$ F) G( L/ }2 W  F' o" N8 G
24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067
# s1 l( T. t) A  t. Z3 J8 E  a25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
$ F  {* N/ B$ l7 j

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。


' \. F: l% i% O/ m/ }押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
) {! h2 l1 n) W10A23456789+ d* F# O, G4 j% F
-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.122! M  E* _: D; r8 g- z; D
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
8 u  A$ p; q. i: q+ B-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152
/ D" _& _$ W; o/ Q; l-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.166
+ |9 h/ x" l8 l% o. n, ]-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180: S9 w4 L/ n" f+ a* M3 d8 g  R5 D
-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193
5 n+ ^! ]9 f, K1 Y# S3 t9 T+ Q-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.205; R- v8 w/ {1 y4 ]! P* ?3 I
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217( u5 e' \, i  S3 {: r( S* i
0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
$ a0 c, u. Z3 h) V  q1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
# Z  e: c( v+ C! V3 j7 L5 T# E2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.249
$ U+ }7 t3 b: O4 u5 a3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258  `( b1 _  i  O& |; `
4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266: e9 B, A; f1 d6 ]
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274: U2 v, q% s  j3 W
6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281! g3 l6 `- C6 f1 b: [# C
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287' ~+ ?2 u& c4 h9 q  A6 s
8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
1 E7 d# x% N, H% h* i9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
5 d5 Z& u1 T, x& H- Z% H4 x10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.302
& D0 e+ |7 A% l1 k+ Y2 K3 A- W11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
' p1 @* R; G: p4 m3 A, R& }12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
( J3 _* t, s& O# D  b13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310* K- X* z: k& H6 M, Q: q( F
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.311
. i1 a' H0 [& {# K+ [* y4 g+ ?15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.311
& Z; s/ f: j) A  J  s! V4 Q16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
! L8 Q3 w7 L- v4 J* J6 H17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310! X" A) q  v! E" @/ M
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
/ \9 g+ ?  w  o  y1 e19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305- ]9 u6 o) x4 s+ V- F/ B7 ~
20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301
- w, g8 e- B4 T" ^21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297; e! n7 ~0 L+ }2 V% k( |0 ~8 k
22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292  F: ]  |. C/ L* q  \. u& c0 k3 o7 x
23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
4 z) G# Y6 E! {. J0 h24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.279
, X, _. e2 X* f, d' i25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272
9 @% g3 ^1 `  B  e- R' U

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
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4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
6#
似懂非懂………
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7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
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:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
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