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小分3种情况:) l4 d& ^+ m( c5 w2 O, u, g3 E
+ ^' g# l& O3 H# e1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
; V; `; c c6 d# G# h
' ^( O( V5 F& c2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。( w; ]- m+ N/ P
+ [% ], v7 ^+ Z9 @+ H" n4 ?3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
, c4 A: g- n a: P q7 g
9 h" z& z$ p( w+ J2张牌8或9点的情况有:8 c* _9 v3 o8 ^! n/ g- K* q
8 A& B3 a& W( ~: h1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
9 R/ a* t6 g' r: {. Y) e5 M5 C! L7 P5 T) m7 a5 u
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
% X2 U [, |; a' E2 M: \( W
! g4 U$ ]* q& ]& T. W" R9 x$ q4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415# x; K$ E" @& o. W* m. `6 N
( x2 ~) U( X" v4 `2 i8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
6 g+ V% ]5 L5 }' ?( }2 i2 K
, W, k: f$ M( G+ N9 ^# p* ?由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
/ T, x* Z2 {+ E7 M- \$ w9 Y
" d' v2 s% ?3 Y* `) a通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。# }" U. l; G( v% ? P# ?& o
' H P; V2 a% C- D& V t
那么我们可以得出
9 F0 Q8 n; G! x$ t- s
8 g+ d4 N. _3 h. h! Y6 r1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662- n. y- V( H9 ^$ F# P0 J
% k, `6 X5 H8 c1 S9 p: ~+ `* X
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
2 f) a: Z6 C' s3 s, p7 O6 g) [4 t; {; Y- b e' E
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
& w2 ~5 s H- u
t( G) h8 l) I7 d0 }所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
/ l5 p2 N# O6 I& Y& N; ~: m
* H5 o8 |1 y) [# I百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.6211306777 r: D2 B1 q. \9 b3 Z/ W+ T
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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