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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
! c7 v" j; i7 G9 h     
, f/ w' w' g( g" K     平手中水,主队有利
- r  u) Q7 @$ T$ j: x3 y' j) d     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。" M' k/ J% ]- x  }: z
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:1 [6 w) D: Q1 O. \
     英超主队) i" o0 g7 }$ J/ m2 `0 \
     胜:13场 48%
  \% J# U0 @6 Y5 Q5 u/ r     平:5场 17%! x7 I( I  C/ y9 ~
     负:9场 35%( r! {6 m* R7 g5 ^1 i
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
8 k8 I/ m: T0 S( Y. E- v$ ]6 R! X, v     
3 M! [" J4 K* x) [* _. Q     一、初盘阶段
; N- M$ G4 e! U+ B     具体到水位如下:
! k; S- o- {! a0 o5 p, V     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
9 V& D% \# U  E4 y$ b4 l3 D     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负
. }6 Y; p3 I. I6 p: }     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负* ^# b8 A" k! z5 b% m, k! y# R
     
) j! t. O$ l, D7 Y$ ?- W( c     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。
! s2 }; e3 ^( |" x1 x7 q! I! z     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。
; a  {8 P* p7 x7 c% ~5 E* F( F     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
  Q- ~* }5 J% h, `" ~" |, {     
5 K! {; P8 w2 {& F& t     二、临场阶段
' l, E- K& Q9 l( d( V     
3 h) T4 P+ V' a. |) U* f     具体到变盘和水位如下:, a( z" x' R" a/ w7 E- H
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负, O* x3 t* S1 i9 J# m1 w- {  A. ~
     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负/ h) }9 p6 K4 q+ I) {" V! _6 C; f  O
     
! m* R0 c: a1 i# i& [     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
/ w2 U' q7 D) ~3 f     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
% c2 Y, M$ S0 F     - u) O" S+ K+ T  }7 R6 U
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
1 P9 G7 g% q4 l) c* W$ g8 z& K     初盘:0.82平手1.04" s$ t8 Z. h: C: V' h
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
, J/ D* x( J( ~0 t- V4 e' z3 B     
  t2 t- u9 f. q1 N+ t9 F     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
3 r' i. L8 c8 B* T/ R6 g/ ]' H: t     初盘:0.76平手1.10, v' Q9 o" Q( p# |/ P6 K7 w
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
' j* ~0 }0 S/ u' ?4 K     
/ f4 n  D# I& q  ?     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
2 u4 [3 M0 X+ T     初盘:0.82平手1.04* w! Q+ U% e' P5 F& p
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98
1 j' Z2 p% |* y5 U7 @; Z" K( Q: j4 |     : V% b3 z. A6 U; ~* s+ E9 \
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆8 Z; r6 k+ H6 W+ u. T) Z
     初盘:0.88平手0.98
. S+ P6 G/ r. R0 q& w* x* h" L     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
( \. ]3 n7 x5 h! C; \$ o8 {     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。# U. `4 d) a" a% ?: }
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
5 t" N2 ?2 ], B/ T- z# I" M     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。2 h8 P6 f( d2 Q
     3 L: i1 T  S# I- F* t3 l1 ]  g" v
     三、球队表现5 `% H$ S5 e5 X3 b+ J- ^
     
" b6 Y, m; p1 b) j" V     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。5 ~& t7 ^. Y& j9 B% r) V9 K
     8 X; f6 j# N: k% e& C
     四、投注要点9 y. q" F$ H( S
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
  j: X4 p/ b6 @0 `4 S/ |2 o2 Y% @     要点2:平手降盘、走两头1 m6 x( M4 n* K. n) w! R
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
+ Y6 j( v. S: J' i! G$ ]4 i     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
  u# R. B$ @" v; y) ^% Y+ T     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任+ o% e( @) F  E# p( d- R
     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大! J# z& H' I9 i
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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