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上涨趋势回归、比特币11月将冲破新高、山寨季还有吗?(转)
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最近一个月,降息+大选的大环境让BTC从6万涨到接近7w的位置,MEME横飞,
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ETF现货也在持续流入,走势也是非常强势的,大部分山寨币也接近筑底,算是新一轮周期的开始。
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这里依然看BTC往新高走,出现一批交易机会。
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接下来多个关键因素推动大量资金流入:0 `! J5 _+ V( x+ P* j! T8 r6 T# A* T% S
4 h( m) z, g7 T7 S0 m大选,双方候选人都支持比特币。% { K1 R+ K; o; ^0 n: V% M! s
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美联储降息。1 p4 I }$ H$ v f
$ t5 y: A- w$ x: N0 t/ J2 M2024年第四季度至2025年第一季度的160亿美元FTX赔付。
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前三次大选前后,比特币都迎来了大涨,预计这届也是,不管谁当选总统,都不会改变比特币震荡上行的大趋势,只不过特朗普当选,BTC会涨得更猛,能大大缩短突破10万的周期。& z7 p0 r6 B5 S- r0 G
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如果你不了解洞悉主力的洗盘与出货要点,那么你将在币圈很难发财。- H4 G: F9 N7 Z$ G' v+ ^
5 P* {6 q" j+ p; U! \7 A以下是一些关键技巧:: S* V2 f0 ?# P+ Y. N% G
9 O$ C8 M% y) X( F! ^6 |2 \- d1- 关注成交量:洗盘时成交量通常会萎缩,而出货时则会放大。
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5 f; l" Y) }% q; |( K& Y2- 留意币价位置:主力通常会在币价拉升 30%左右时进行洗盘,而当涨幅超过 60%时,就需要警惕出货的可能性。
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3- 分析分时图:洗盘时的分时图往往上蹿下跳,而出货时的分时图则相对平稳。, `* I9 b7 m# I& ^
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当前山寨市场行情走势各异,进入自身周期底部盘整的时间阶段也各不相同。抄底哪个山寨,以及判断该山寨是否已进入自身底部。1 @1 i/ p {( @% J* V a2 }6 `
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10月即将结束,11月1号的非农数据可能是突破的关键,因为非农数据后5号就是大选,相信数据面不会难看,毕竟这是4年一政、权利交替的关键时期,哪怕是表面工作也是需要去维护的。在加上美股这两天提前下跌洗盘,也符合我前天的分析每一轮大选公布前2周,美股都有提前下跌洗一波,待到新总统上任,在释放利好,美股顺势再创新高。
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; `- ^# L, B, \$ _3 U$ C9 o& G* v8 v比特币现在的走势基本上和美股挂钩,那么美股持续的创新高,那么比特币自然顺势突破前高,飞到更高的地方,所以11月份有很大的概率比特币会突破前高73880,到达75000,甚至80000,所以兄弟们接下来我们一起迎接比特币的春天吧。
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: `5 M/ d4 ^/ d- G; v* _虽然这轮比特币牛市跟90%的山寨都没什么关系,很是操蛋,但是只要比特币能够突破前高,至少山寨季还是有机会到来的。最近经常听到有人问eth为什么那么拉垮。% c5 u; S0 V9 c
- ^, J/ B$ o P8 s$ r毫无疑问,本质上是被资本冷落了。从3月中旬至今,从4k附近一路跌下来到最低饭2k附近基本被腰斩,如果不是9.18首次减息50个基点这个利好抽了一把,它就要直奔1600方向。这大半年时间里,每次大盘走回调,eth都是充当的急先锋,跌起来不输其他山寨。从这点可以看到它的弹性远不如以前。
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: m. |; @" |- `4 A, r" X2 q5 Z反观sol,从前年FTX暴雷黑天鹅飞出,跌到个位数后一路扶摇直上200,虽然最近半年内也接近腰斩,但弹性是很强的,同期逢高回踩的力度也远没eth大。两者一比较,就很清楚,这轮大周期资本青睐的是sol。
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sol 应该是第5个大机会(前4个分别是铭文、bome、pandora、goat)
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" H3 [/ t: _0 A: u* \* M3 N当前 sol 日收入高达870万美元,这是一些头部L2几个月的收入,sol链的活跃程度,加上meme大赌场地位的稳固,以及后续还有一个ETF的巨大利好。sol的etf通过是时间问题,综合考虑基本面和etf的可能性,持有sol会是beta优选。/ M1 Y3 R8 z- O' t$ G
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山寨季还有吗?7 q% X( T5 a& G
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1.板块轮动的行情一定还有,放心。1 B" ]$ b2 v# v p1 x* B7 t2 b
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2.大饼不创新高,各大山寨做市商不敢轻举妄动,只有少部分币在拉,大部分基本面趴在地上。/ V5 v( d( f5 _: ?
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3.千万不要看着别人的币拉了,就着急换(除非赔率性价比更高)。5 p( |+ V% m9 L- P, l
/ d. j3 t" k$ w; j$ r未来就是你一卖他就开始拉,你一追涨它就开始回调,反复你将心态炸裂。4 C" B! T' _& e' m& S, Y) ^! F
Z) p5 E4 Y* R+ c现在做好仓位管理就可以了。1 n( f9 z3 i. I7 k
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