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[虚拟币交流]
比特币突破3万美元！分析师：BTC波动率来到5年低点（转载）
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近期比特币市场在29,000美元区间持续震荡，但昨(1)晚最低一度来到28,585美元后，
* `) f+ a: d0 [0 S" n; {) L1 B9 J) }/ `开启一波快速反弹，撰稿当下最高来到30,047美元，再次站上3万美元、以太坊也在1,880美元附近震荡。
- P6 |. N1 D' |" x比特币波动压力到达顶峰，爆发即将到来
$ {& p+ Q6 L* K* U对于近期币价走势，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报指出，当前的低波动性正处于「火山爆发」2 H; C; Q+ o+ q0 v
前夕。报告首先指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄金：比特币的五日波动率目前低于纳斯达克
/ Y4 m8 \- V1 G! k$ l* A指数、标普500指数，甚至低于黄金。IVs也紧随其后，跌至历史最低点。2 w* M. P% f+ I9 Y% }+ z& u- R
时间再拉长一些，比特币当前30天的波动率也已来到近5年的低点，这样的低波动率仅在2019年1月持续了8天。7 i$ W/ E! [6 I3 L) w& Y- g
历史经验告诉我们，比特币的波动性减弱往往意味着即将出现较大幅度的波动，因此当前的低波动期或许很快将1 |/ X- f' r# C4 ~' K, q P/ n
结束。K33高级分析师Vetle Lunde对此表示：我的短期观点是，市场的波动压力即将到达顶峰，爆发即将到来。
4 ~6 a, V& U* ]0 X2 ESEC对比特币现货ETF的回应将在短期造成比特币大幅波动$ q- }. {% U' D( o
同时Lunde认为比特币的波动需要大型事件作为催化剂，在他看来，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对Ark21Shares、, K+ ?: R) w# q+ ]
贝莱德和其他公司提交的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)文件的回应，可能在未来几周或几个月内造成比特币波动。# z, c1 l) r2 A8 j. T* R
但Lunde并未对此作出积极判断，而是认为所有申请都将会被驳回并延期：我预计所有正在进行的申请都将被推- F0 ~& C: g. |4 s5 h$ {8 | u. C/ [
迟，至少要等到Grayscale与SEC的诉讼得出结果。但我预计这些事件对市场波动的影响不会那么大。尽管如此，" Q- o& R1 s" s5 P7 I" H
我还是倾向于持有大量比特币，并在整个夏天更积极地增持比特币，以防判决早于预期。
- i9 F3 r$ ?1 w: v3 D: ^ X3 vK33看好2024年加密货币市场
# x; i# q U. M) Q: s. I7 l0 Y% r7 I此外，Lunde也对近期发生骇客事件的稳定币流动性协议Curve Finance作出评价，认为当前该协议面临的清算风8 m( j0 X" O! ]. Z& Q, V
险将对市场造成难以预测的负面影响：这些清算可能会对市场产生巨大的负面效应，推高波动性，这些事件很难
" C6 q. i2 V" s5 |7 H4 j0 D# {提前预测。4 r! m; g* q0 T* V/ q7 V$ {
但总体而言，Lunde仍然对加密货币在2024年的表现表示看好，无论是在比特币减半之前还是之后，以及比特币
+ @! X+ U" [# ?, ^& p$ o现货ETF的走向如何。
3 l/ f9 K: o+ V0 G. v) w
: u5 ?! O2 J7 I a& ~, r" Y0 s% J: Q# d6 ^3 L4 s3 h$ w0 X+ F
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