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[虚拟币交流]
当前市场：为什么BTC横盘但Altcoin却在“流血”？
[复制链接]
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在最近的几次走势中，我们很容易注意到：BTC横盘（震荡）在稳定的价格区间内。3 n4 U* W1 W- W2 N% |9 q& E6 g
Altcoin持续下跌，尽管比特币尚未出现剧烈下跌。
' m( e, e4 d* U+ U/ J0 T8 g: |越南市场的USDT汇率仍然很高，显示出对稳定币的需求并未减弱。
0 i; J+ U5 Q% o8 H4 Z( s你们可以比较两张图表：altcoin/BTC和Altcoin/USDT的相对强弱指数。* Z2 e2 g& u# t8 {6 i
从九月初开始。上涨时，alt/btc弱于usdt，因为atl/usdt对冲使用了期货杠杆，而下跌时则强于usdt，因为直接通过现货交易。
4 [5 {: {; M! Q9 T! Ualt/btc) x+ I5 O1 T o& y" L9 r. Z' [
alt/usdt
7 |4 R0 g; q/ Y, s那么，发生了什么？- A3 H8 g' c) i* l
1. 大户轮换资金
/ v0 F0 ~& K$ C( g与其直接将山寨币抛售为USDT（会导致alt/USDT图表大幅下滑），大户和市场做市商选择将山寨币转换为BTC或ETH。! [7 q, E6 `7 n3 k1 G+ T3 Z
这种方式使得alt/USDT对看起来仍然相对稳定。
+ O" p* R1 U- ~; I但实际上，如果观察ALT/BTC或ALT/ETH对，我们会发现山寨币贬值非常严重。" a) O/ f/ ^! C3 g' g) ]
2. 市场的防御心理$ a! F2 _. n- v
投资者正在缩小风险，优先选择BTC和ETH——这些资产流动性大，波动性小。
5 T8 S6 T3 X `这解释了为什么资金没有流入山寨币，导致它们逐渐疲弱。
7 b: z+ J0 e8 g# `3. 需要关注的信号+ F6 a7 I! D U# s8 u6 q
BTC主导率和ETH主导率有上升趋势→确认资金流向大币种。" t d1 ^8 X& l. j/ f
山寨币市场总市值持续下降→显示山寨币仍在被抽血。
/ z- v) [8 i6 rUSDT保持高价→稳定币需求依然强劲，USDT主导率仍高，但尚未出现资金愿意冒险回流的迹象。8 N: \ \" i9 a. v! ^2 @3 x
4. 对投资者的意义/ a) H+ L' e1 z& ]4 G) J6 _
在这个阶段，缺乏新买盘的山寨币难以形成独立波动。% f; h9 u4 v/ g. i' m/ L
如果BTC横盘时间过长后再大幅波动，山寨币可能会被“踩”出一个波段。
6 J3 A; Q3 J9 C$ [0 z0 k* f$ F安全策略：关注资金流动，避免过多持有弱势山寨币，集中于顶级币或在强烈信号出现后再大举投资山寨币。
/ B* P2 T) s# N( z6 Y1 x" W. O# X结论：市场正进入大户收集BTC/ETH流动性的阶段，山寨币只是资金轮换周期中的“猎物”。散户投资者需要保持警觉，不要被alt/USDT尚未崩盘的感觉迷惑，以为这是机会。( D2 c5 y9 h: j1 ]
#加密货币#
+ G% u9 Y5 r& z; ~
2 M7 t/ j. |4 U k6 n3 T |
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这波山寨币被割得血淋淋的，BTC装死不动，小币全在裸奔，庄家明显在抽水换仓呢 |
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市场操作有点阴谋论，大户在搞鬼转移资金，小散步森严防范保身。 |
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