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[真人] 百家樂投注研究二
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第二節 百家樂收益率的研究

賭戲分析的根本的是研究賭戲的賭博策略和相應的收益率。從表面看來百家樂似乎沒有和二十一點類似的策略,但它和二十一點一樣,用了多副牌,一局牌要玩很多輪,可以預料,百家樂也應該存在著一個浮動的收益率。

從前一節對百家樂基本資料的計算可以看出,這時計算出的是所有的牌都還在牌盒里,一張牌也還沒有發出時的收益率。

在荷官剛洗完牌,游戲尚未開始進行之前的初始狀態,在一副牌中,每種牌平均都有4張;隨著游戲的進行,這種狀態被打破,會出現各種各樣的偏離初始狀態的情形。和研究二十一點採用的方法一樣,我們首先研究比較特殊的情形,即平均到一副牌時,單獨一種牌數量的變化對賭客收益率的影響,以便認識這種牌在百家樂中的作用,從而得到對所有牌作用的認識。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

假設某種牌的數量不是4張,而是比其他的牌多出了X張,爲4+0.5X張,那麼其余的12種牌必須少掉0.5X張才能保持數量上的平衡,爲了研究方便,我們認爲這12種牌的機會都一樣,他們都以相同的概率出現。這樣,在一副牌中多出X張的牌出現的概率爲:

(4+0.5X )/52=1/13×(1+X/8)

其余的牌出現的概率爲: ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

(4-0.5X/12)/52=1/13×(1-X/96)

在8副牌的情況下,X的可能取值爲-8爲X爲56。

和前一節的過程類似,我們可以得到對應于每一個X的取值下的收益率,在此我們省略推算過程,直接給出每種牌從少8張到多出25張的情況下,百家樂的收益率。

一 莊 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

1 c* u( k2 B0 `
賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類
/ `( J' w1 l+ ]# `10A23456789/ J4 ]) l2 ]2 {
-8-1.003-0.905-0.866-0.921-0.743-1.263-1.528-1.405-1.230-1.1599 A* Z( \) c  u1 c0 i' Q+ V: L2 [
-7-1.008-0.925-0.894-0.928-0.773-1.250-1.462-1.354-1.211-1.146
, h4 u, S. [1 `$ K) f+ T4 w-6-1.013-0.945-0.920-0.939-0.806-1.234-1.398-1.306-1.192-1.133
3 f8 i# H  S" E7 C# \-5-1.020-0.966-0.946-0.953-0.842-1.213-1.336-1.261-1.171-1.120! b+ M) M9 F6 }% A) M# h
-4-1.027-0.985-0.971-0.970-0.881-1.189-1.277-1.218-1.151-1.1089 L0 d; @* C$ z0 h
-3-1.035-1.005-0.995-0.989-0.923-1.162-1.220-1.177-1.129-1.096
/ [" p+ P0 e+ h$ D$ r. H-2-1.044-1.025-1.018-1.012-0.968-1.132-1.166-1.138-1.108-1.085
* u& G, K6 e! A; e  }) P- J/ z7 ~$ o-1-1.054-1.045-1.041-1.037-1.015-1.099-1.114-1.100-1.086-1.074
0 o) @# _" S9 l% C( y0-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064-1.064$ ^# }: j# [3 ~4 {8 p# z  E
1-1.075-1.083-1.087-1.094-1.115-1.027-1.016-1.029-1.042-1.054
4 R& r+ E( T1 ~6 w* _0 x- B2-1.087-1.102-1.109-1.125-1.169-0.987-0.970-0.994-1.019-1.0455 w; p1 q2 c. T+ |
3-1.099-1.121-1.132-1.159-1.224-0.946-0.927-0.960-0.997-1.036+ z  [0 U7 t( e9 H8 Q- v; G( p1 {
4-1.113-1.140-1.155-1.195-1.281-0.903-0.885-0.927-0.975-1.028
0 w$ A/ Q8 a7 [% k3 h# o5-1.126-1.158-1.179-1.232-1.339-0.859-0.845-0.894-0.953-1.020' G& }$ g% n: x$ y
6-1.141-1.176-1.203-1.271-1.398-0.814-0.807-0.862-0.930-1.013# I& u! C6 a- P+ l9 P2 O; z: _$ m, M
7-1.156-1.194-1.228-1.312-1.458-0.767-0.771-0.829-0.909-1.007
# O9 p: x; M. r' S3 q' m7 e8-1.172-1.212-1.254-1.353-1.519-0.720-0.736-0.796-0.887-1.001/ H, u# Z' @9 f9 e* ?
9-1.188-1.230-1.281-1.396-1.580-0.672-0.703-0.763-0.866-0.996
! e2 w6 V1 m& `3 W+ M: M6 m10-1.204-1.247-1.309-1.440-1.642-0.624-0.672-0.729-0.845-0.9928 l' I4 |6 H9 k- ~& N& W; {
11-1.221-1.264-1.339-1.484-1.704-0.575-0.642-0.695-0.824-0.9880 X3 ^4 I; ^2 Q7 h  l+ y% R
12-1.239-1.281-1.370-1.530-1.766-0.526-0.614-0.661-0.804-0.985
8 I. O1 A6 i' t  P* `13-1.257-1.298-1.403-1.576-1.828-0.477-0.587-0.626-0.784-0.982
9 f  z* K2 f/ I14-1.275-1.314-1.437-1.622-1.890-0.428-0.562-0.590-0.765-0.980% p% H4 N% N# }* K# p- m4 n) Z. C/ V
15-1.294-1.330-1.473-1.668-1.951-0.379-0.538-0.553-0.747-0.9798 P' o1 y8 U  f/ z
16-1.313-1.346-1.512-1.715-2.011-0.331-0.515-0.515-0.729-0.979
2 p' y0 T3 |8 F- ?! S- ?& s17-1.332-1.362-1.552-1.761-2.071-0.284-0.493-0.476-0.712-0.979' K& h5 Q$ b0 Y" A% o1 B+ z; q2 N
18-1.351-1.377-1.595-1.808-2..130-0.237-0.473-0.436-0.696-0.979( A1 a8 X6 p& |- l7 b2 H
19-1.371-1.393-1.641-1.854-2.187-0.190-0.453-0.394-0.680-0.981
  w% C& n6 {8 x20-1.390-1.408-1.689-1.900-2.243-0.145-0.435-0.352-0.665-0.983) v, B" X8 G7 `* O5 u& y6 P
21-1.410-1.422-1.739-1.945-2.298-0.101-0.418-0.308-0.651-0.986
: t+ V6 d' j- z: r0 p22-1.429-1.437-1.793-1.989-2.351-0.058-0.402-0.262-0.638-0.989; u" ^3 o+ q7 _' Z
23-1.448-1.451-1.850-2.033-2.403-0.016-0.387-0.215-0.626-0.993
- d$ m% E6 e0 N1 B+ f1 p) t6 |24-1.467-1.465-1.909-2.076-2.4520.024-0.374-0.166-0.614-0.997
: r+ }8 l* r9 f  v* u2 l. U) j25-1.486-1.479-1.972-2.117-2.5000.063-0.361-0.116-0.604-1.002
, o/ Y' e# A. \" h  }0 t+ M

從表可以看出,X=0時押莊的收益率和前一節計算出的有細微的差別,這是由于這里的計算是根據少牌或多牌的張數對1/13作修正來代替牌實際出現的概率造成的,但結果的精度還是相當高的。

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押莊的收益率減小,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。

剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押莊的收益率增加,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

但押莊的收益率隨X值的變化并不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

爲便于認識每種牌對押莊收益率的改善程度,現在列出相對于X=0時押莊收益率的變化值。


0 Y3 D  |/ K& V# L' x! g表7-2-4 賭客的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類, p' R9 f$ \7 ^8 |) N9 u
10A234567899 s' |6 |7 j+ x- |
-80.0610.1590.1980.1430.321-0.199-0.464-0.341-0.166-0.0955 w' a* O1 K+ C4 j! \
-70.0560.1390.1700.1360.291-0.187-0.398-0.290-0.147-0.082
- i: m: h0 S: u-60.0510.1190.1440.1250.258-0.170-0.334-0.242-0.128-0.0695 q- p8 I# z7 w" Z; N+ [
-50.0440.0980.1180.1110.222-0.149-0.272-0.197-0.107-0.056
9 R1 Y  F+ |4 t$ O" O7 U% i# g! W; L7 C-40.0370.0790.0930.0940.183-0.125-0.213-0.154-0.087-0.044$ y$ j9 N. X& ]! U
-30.0290.0590.0690.0750.141-0.098-0.156-0.113-0.065-0.0328 l- D+ Q; l/ P
-20.0200.0390.0460.0520.096-0.068-0.102-0.074-0.044-0.0217 e9 N( {" z" h
-10.0100.0190.0230.0270.049-0.035-0.050-0.036-0.022-0.010( H; U( p7 F: K4 f& ]3 B1 ]
00.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.0004 g6 S5 s: B! L" X
1-0.011-0.019-0.023-0.030-0.0510.0370.0480.0350.0220.010
! K, d2 O! @! l0 l2-0.023-0.038-0.045-0.061-0.1050.0770.0940.0700.0450.019
: \1 @! F) Q* ?3 e3-0.035-0.057-0.068-0.095-0.1600.1180.1370.1040.0670.028+ x1 R# o2 M4 B, ]8 f3 y( P& F
4-0.049-0.076-0.091-0.131-0.2170.1610.1790.1370.0890.0368 l, e  @; `! b
5-0.062-0.094-0.115-0.168-0.2750.2050.2190.1700.1110.044
; J6 l" V* B4 a7 V3 v3 `3 L6-0.077-0.112-0.139-0.207-0.3340.2500.2570.2020.1340.051
: ~  T; T7 S3 U% A/ q# F7-0.092-0.130-0.164-0.248-0.3940.2970.2930.2350.1550.057
; A" p; L. W, L, l- Z, ]8-0.108-0.148-0.190-0.289-0.4550.3440.3280.2680.1770.063' Y8 r; e% I9 W
9-0.124-0.166-0.217-0.332-0.5160.3920.3610.3010.1980.068
' P5 A# F" i+ `  _$ [6 m10-0.140-0.183-0.245-0.376-0.5780.4400.3920.3350.2190.072
$ C; t5 a  ]0 m. U11-0.157-0.200-0.275-0.420-0.6400.4890.4220.3690.2400.076
- C3 Y1 y3 o! l12-0.175-0.217-0.306-0.466-0.7020.5380.4500.4030.2600.0793 n" k3 O7 s9 }' P/ T- U
13-0.193-0.234-0.339-0.512-0.7640.5870.4770.4380.2800.082
* R8 `7 r2 {& w7 d" p2 l: B14-0.211-0.250-0.373-0.558-0.8260.6360.5020.4740.2990.0849 f- y# \- a  k- K# `
15-0.230-0.266-0.409-0.604-0.8870.6850.5260.5110.3170.0854 |4 F. F' x8 A  t  \: J
16-0.249-0.282-0.448-0.651-0.9470.7330.5490.5490.3350.085
5 a; b* k% ?" c1 C2 ^8 n* F17-0.268-0.298-0.448-0.697-1.0070.7800.5710.5880.3520.085: m1 f" R5 A( `1 d
18-0.287-0.313-0.531-0.744-1.0660.8270.5910.6280.3680.085" F6 ^0 f9 c+ r& n2 R/ H) b3 c3 ?
19-0.307-0.329-0.577-0.790-1.1230.8740.6110.6700.3840.083! {; Y8 i, ?3 |2 u6 K# C, s1 d  |
20-0.326-0.344-0.625-0.836-1.1790.9190.6290.7120.3990.081
4 G9 u+ n6 {. j# i6 }* y* G21-0.346-0.358-0.675-0.881-1.2340.9630.6460.7560.4130.078" X6 W. R' Z( _
22-0.365-0.373-0.729-0.925-1.2871.0060.6620.8020.4260.075  L& z* m! [3 j& R/ K
23-0.384-0.387-0.786-0.969-1.3391.0480.6770.8490.4380.071
8 E; w4 u+ [' E5 O, ~$ }24-0.403-0.401-0.845-1.012-1.3881.0880.6900.8980.4500.067! E& Y3 N$ F( t2 w
25-0.422-0.415-0.908-1.053-1.4361.1270.7030.9480.4600.062
- m5 A- Z: z4 g1 f9 J/ i7 ^7 e* S

此表是總結百家樂算牌系統的依據。

二 閑 ——百家樂天地duchang888.com——>

研究百家樂的收益率是同時得到“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果,爲了讀起來更方便,我們把“莊”、“閑”、“和”的結果分別列出來,下面是押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系。

% Y- y- J; h; s- q) @. Z
押閑的收益率和一副牌中每種牌多少的關系 X= 少牌或多牌的種類! E9 p  F" S+ R. N; A
10A23456789
$ M7 b* @9 f" x& C) K-8-1.285-1.389-1.432-1.373-1.558-1.024-0.759-0.884-1.044-1.1222 G) l2 K5 U# Q; @
-7-1.280-1.369-1.404-1.366-1.528-1.038-0.827-0.936-1.066-1.137
4 J8 R6 L7 H/ f: u( l; ?-6-1.275-1.348-1.377-1.356-1.494-1.055-0.892-0.985-1.089-1.152, }4 {5 l# _0 \7 h* n9 D. `
-5-1.269-1.328-1.350-1.342-1.457-1.076-0.954-1.031-1.111-1.1669 G; D+ j& P' c; {, X9 F! w
-4-1.263-1.308-1.325-1.325-1.417-1.101-1.0141.074-1.134-1.180
& S! p4 `+ j/ n& E5 m-3-1.255-1.288-1.300-1.305-1.374-1.128-1.071-1.115-1.158-1.193* d) [7 h" f3 j. f0 Y
-2-1.247-1.268-1.276-1.282-1.328-1.159-1.126-1.155-1.181-1.2056 }# C8 A0 m( G
-1-1.238-1.248-1.252-1.256-1.279-1.192-1.178-1.192-1.205-1.217
" P3 z. ]* ?5 S# C8 n4 d3 G) I0-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228-1.228
3 [$ P" m* I! Z' c0 ^  Q1-1.218-1.209-1.205-1.197-1.175-1.266-1.276-1.263-1.252-1.239
0 R& Z% o  ^+ F5 R" N, ~2 `$ G2-1.206-1.189-1.181-1.164-1.120-1.306-1.321-1.297-1.275-1.2498 y# w) I2 S/ V. s0 L
3-1.194-1.170-1.157-1.129-1.063-1.348-1.364-1.330-1.298-1.258
  o* V5 T. e; s; q4 {" _4-1.181-1.151-1.133-1.092-1.004-1.392-1.405-1.362-1.321-1.266% N# k/ X1 K, E
5-1.168-1.132-1.108-1.053-0.944-1.437-1.444-1.394-1.344-1.274
$ x8 `; V* F# V( N8 j) I# \0 q: I6-1.153-1.114-1.083-1.012-0.883-1.483-1.482-1.426-1.367-1.281, w5 ?& i5 c4 x0 B
7-1.138-1.095-1.057-0.969-0.821-1.530-1.517-1.458-1.389-1.287
- \) g0 a0 a/ `% y+ m8-1.123-1.077-1.030-0.926-0.758-1.578-1.551-1.489-1.411-1.293
2 ]* ?3 u8 n- g. J2 J6 m9-1.107-1.059-1.002-0.880-0.694-1.627-1.583-1.521-1.432-1.298
5 D. X2 v" B+ P; C! |8 T# B10-1.090-1.042-0.972-0.834-0.630-1.676-1.613-1.553-1.453-1.3021 X! F$ @; V4 P# b6 ~: z
11-1.072-1.024-0.941-0.787-0.566-1.726-1.641-1.586-1.473-1.306
( U- ?1 _6 t# L8 T; z/ g1 Q12-1.054-1.007-0.909-0.739-0.501-1.776-1.669-1.619-1.493-1.308
& T9 {/ R* n2 D( A$ `13-1.035-0.990-0.875-0.690-0.437-1.825-1.694-1.653-1.512-1.310) _: N, O" G" E; Q) S) x- t6 P/ K9 n
14-1.016-0.973-0.839-0.640-0.373-1.875-1.719-1.688-1.531-1.3111 J( p8 ~7 |2 [# R# b7 K
15-0.997-0.957-0.801-0.590-0.309-1.925-1.742-1.724-1.548-1.3116 A+ b, }$ `$ G% n1 F
16-0.976-0.940-0.761-0.540-0.246-1.974-1.763-1.761-1.565-1.311
6 G7 B9 f8 k( D8 _' N  O! }. n/ c* H17-0.956-0.924-0.718-0.489-0.184-2.022-1.784-1.799-1.581-1.310" P% }& z9 H" A
18-0.935-0.908-0.673-0.439-0.123-2.070-1.803-1.838-1.596-1.308
- k8 @# R" Y0 O- y9 \19-0.913-0.893-0.625-0.388-0.063-2.117-1.821-1.878-1.611-1.305
, ]. g& _: u1 W7 O& V/ `! H% o20-0.891-0.877-0.575-0.338-0.004-2.163-1.838-1.920-1.624-1.301, O# E2 v; b9 {  U$ F6 R
21-0.869-0.862-0.521-0.2880.054-0.207-1.854-1.963-1.636-1.297
* m) u& p  ~. Q5 f- B22-0.847-0.847-0.465-0.2380.110-2.251-1.869-2.008-1.648-1.292
& H; V) }' @( X# }23-0.824-0.832-0.405-0.1890.164-2.293-1.883-2.054-1.658-1.286
1 J0 w! Z3 o9 B+ W7 D  c/ U' h24-0.801-0.818-0.343-0.1400.217-2.334-1.896-2.101-1.667-1.2796 p" |. x4 L/ q7 U$ \
25-0.777-0.804-0.276-0.0920.268-2.374-1.907-2.151-1.675-1.272  K6 U/ R3 T. j, s

 

由表可以得出結論,剩牌中“10”、“A”、“2”、“3”、“4”多,押閑的收益率增加,其中以“4”的影響最大,“10“最弱。剩牌中“5”、“6”、“7”、“8”、“9”多,押閑的收益率減少,其中以“5”的影響最大,“9“最弱。但押閑的收益率隨X值的變化也不明顯,只有在極爲極端的情況下,才有收益率大于0的情況出現。爲便于認識每種牌對押閑收益率的改善程度,同樣也列出相對于X=0時押閑的收益率的變化值。

avatar
双色球的概率是100000000000000000000000000000000分之一中奖,不还是有很多人买吗?所以楼主被老弄这么多虚无缥缈的东西来唬人行不。
avatar
7#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗
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6#
似懂非懂………
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5#
主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?
avatar
4#
我可能太笨了,不太懂,有谁看明白吗?楼主能不能简单一些
avatar
但是这个帖子感觉没怎么看懂
avatar
每次赌钱必先看一下
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:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
{:8_286:} {:8_287:} {:8_288:} {:8_289:}
{:8_290:} {:8_291:} {:8_292:} {:8_293:}
{:8_294:} {:8_295:} {:8_296:} {:8_297:}
{:8_298:} {:8_299:} {:8_300:} {:8_301:}
{:8_302:} {:8_303:} {:8_304:} {:8_305:}
{:8_306:} {:8_307:} {:8_308:} {:8_309:}
{:8_310:} {:8_311:} {:8_312:}
{:8_313:} {:8_314:} {:8_315:} {:8_316:}
{:8_317:} {:8_318:} {:8_319:} {:8_320:}
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory:
:) :( :D :'( :@ :o
:P :$ ;P :L :Q :lol
:loveliness: :funk: :curse: :dizzy: :shutup: :sleepy:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake: :call:
:hug: :victory: :time: :kiss: :handshake:
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