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小分3种情况:$ j8 j! Y% a8 ?0 G1 u6 |
+ t9 z0 h! _: r3 T1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。7 u( ^, |: G$ L. r" m
4 c' z4 h' ]7 x: H2 e9 M$ y2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
9 i# H: H( O" u" z V0 [8 m
4 Q* J. K7 i( U: Y, _, t3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
. J/ t: X$ S4 m2 f: W5 g- y8 t6 \- q! m. [, {& k- }: F8 \
2张牌8或9点的情况有:$ _- E ]1 [3 E. E
$ Y% Q$ Y4 X& |+ C
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
% v3 _1 k/ T5 A
# Z2 M) @ P: l1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
/ r& B0 P& m7 B" A2 D3 P0 B) e9 n k% a/ |
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
$ G! P. W1 u! c
1 D- a ?5 G. T7 A8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/4159 G4 `- ]! F0 f$ ?
; W/ F+ X: c/ q) G9 O! \7 e由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
, F% j% c1 ~! r1 O
) T X+ c: `4 Y @' I$ s9 l' E% |通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
2 a4 |+ _. ]. m
! @/ B: I. P8 C2 i4 i$ m5 c那么我们可以得出
9 h! x% e" c( u+ z: F# e& N+ M
# ?& }/ R% Q4 n# r( S1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.1894346626 ~) ]9 O* F% ]7 m8 p4 B
, S0 O( {1 I+ u5 O
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 ' v! l% R1 [9 S( p1 ^+ }; \, C4 r
# X4 r- }# V( j/ E
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491; j: U( |4 e: |7 G
) \' L: C& O0 l# f( j" Z5 _
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
* ?0 g; R1 V& q" c: B
( B0 n" O) ^6 b! K& l R百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
- Z: e2 @% e" y; @7 r2 O% D2 R @5 }( h |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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