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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
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     平手中水,主队有利
, {, a! f! Q: e4 \# B$ u; O) N  k     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。
  T5 V& c$ d- z& e3 u: Y  ]0 ^     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
- i2 k& Z* q. [+ V& I/ t     英超主队
6 ~2 W+ ^4 E0 {: n: u     胜:13场 48%6 i. t' `/ M/ s4 e, b- `
     平:5场 17%
" z$ w4 |8 }+ Q8 ]# P     负:9场 35%2 p' W% G* y) f1 N# L  v, n+ h
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
( K/ X2 O; a* f/ K3 ]3 H     ( v4 R2 C  @( Q" Y& k, _
     一、初盘阶段+ g6 U6 q3 g. t6 v# L
     具体到水位如下:$ u( M# ?! b$ w! A) |
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负
8 z+ r2 o5 e' A) e" J     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负! h+ P* z+ [- M$ f8 ?
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
0 ]- o: u7 t5 i7 J( S' a     
9 z- {4 {* _$ j2 F4 _* b     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。! h4 K- j6 K! y6 N& ~
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。6 @. k1 N+ c7 y) \  ^
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。" d: X" s' H; ~% f
     3 A! ?/ n1 l9 i. r
     二、临场阶段
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9 {) g* X5 X% @! M     具体到变盘和水位如下:* ~2 n- y# V* f) }/ [3 I1 J' O" k
     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
, Z* Y& Y4 Z, s9 ]. h0 ^) c4 h     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
' S8 p7 J6 S1 a! m8 v# J     
7 p2 p4 l( l, a- P     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
3 x8 W5 e4 }* v5 L: s9 {3 i! Z     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
( \+ e4 [( }' H- B& l) x7 K, C     
5 g* l! d: o: k5 f8 j4 d) o     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿
* Q* g. T* o" @8 y$ g- s4 j     初盘:0.82平手1.04; _5 I1 F4 D5 d- ~& ?4 F4 {
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85  C; \' |4 N4 C
     
# N5 W8 j% n0 D# q# ^     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
6 R, j3 G; ?. q; k- d3 L     初盘:0.76平手1.10) y. w5 j0 w) M6 J! T
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91" i  {5 B: R2 d* ]9 D& v* E
     
! Z5 k, {7 _/ N- u2 ]0 I8 L     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技+ f6 ^+ b- {" {6 q3 b! N% s- j5 f
     初盘:0.82平手1.04% V4 G( F9 ]7 T6 s
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98" P6 H  I7 b( `& E- M
     ( l1 b5 I+ d, H' Q$ Y7 C* V0 S
     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
, r( n* t1 ]; @8 T8 B     初盘:0.88平手0.98  e% R) n2 k$ W6 l
     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
$ P! e2 _8 r/ l, }/ M     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。
4 o- E+ Z! ?$ i4 j' n/ E$ e5 n     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。1 E  e+ o- x. _2 o9 U! ?. K
     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。
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     三、球队表现& b5 M2 m: f: N2 S$ h2 |
     
  u/ J* d" Q% k4 J# I     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。
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     四、投注要点8 [. Y* b5 H( g7 h
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
9 O4 y, V& a( y* n8 n8 T: o     要点2:平手降盘、走两头
: P1 V. P7 }& ?  M8 s; g# V: ^3 H  O  G     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败/ k( Y. B1 j; O  a  r
     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大
4 ]" z8 g& i, U6 T: V8 K" u5 D     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
" g2 @4 c0 {2 C/ h6 W1 B     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大. \6 H! Y# k- ~( _
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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谢谢楼主的心得分享!
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