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[真人] 求教百家乐优势概率和返水极限问题
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1#
本帖最后由 DC老兵 于 2013-5-22 11:21 编辑
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' T: N- `* P+ g8 S& O9 r+ p, z刚和一个朋友聊到优势问题
$ D6 }9 S; `  h# p正常的算法是
3 j$ A+ e, ~! e, s, \& l庄家(Banker) 403,095,751,234,560 45.87% 1.06%
* J7 w* y, s2 {' L/ D' a$ Z2 n, M闲家(Player) 392,220,492,728,832 44.63% 1.24%
9 x2 I! H7 l& C8 m8 B, j2 u1 `# }和局(Tie) 83,552,962,932,288 9.51% 14.44% . D; Z+ ?. Q" u
问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已
+ @! M( C; O. R: D7 p3 N* `: l问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为05 V0 M& o) j9 |3 l( h% D5 T7 f7 G3 r

$ T1 p9 \- V! Z我的的粗略算法是) V; G, @, m0 I
每次下100元,下两次,从概率看庄闲各中一次,共下注200元,被抽水5元,收195元,若返水1%的话加2元,实收197元,赔率是0.985(197除以200)1 f8 l" B# s& J: s6 U/ r& K
这是粗算法,其实按精算法看出庄的概率大些,所以不能平分,
" F( T( }! z, @- a% d这样算的话返水达到2%都不算高,
+ q# O) L3 N  g但另一个朋友的算法不是这样,带有些精算,讨论中4 N0 M7 Y% X: d! {4 c" O
大家也帮帮下
4 X5 Q( T4 ?/ g0 S/ H- P$ `0 d; H* _7 G/ x! E
问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已  w; C/ A5 X  P" @; ^. E
问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为0
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8 M; o3 {6 p& I  g5 |* V' Y8副牌, 押玩家
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32
8 y7 a+ E# i3 t第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为0
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32& S1 g* n- P. X( k) p( |2 w
第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...! l  z; |! y. w2 k" ~
acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23
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    说的比较靠普 楼主都没算输掉的反水
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回复 3# 艾欧里亚
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  o+ W* y/ Q3 K' p8 [  M, o    扫扫盲,现在网赌公司各项优惠加起来,玩家早就正收益了
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
回复 4# acml1986
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! S1 Z2 Z8 M( E0 ^:lol 正收益也难挡偶尔一次冲动啊
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回复 5# 艾欧里亚 & D; {1 I, m1 `! e9 t
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    正收益也是零点几的微弱优势嘛,冲动带来的负收益是百分之几千几万了,哈哈
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回复 6# acml1986
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    战胜DC看来是比登天还难了,不如家当全弄进去 梭哈两手 告老还乡得了:lol
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚
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    是啊,破了人性还要破数学概率,这两样破其中一项都难比登天,更何况还要同时破两项,拿家当梭哈两把赌报应绝对是玩百家乐最好的打法
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我的精算法是
) h5 m$ Z! a" C- C% e& L第一步得出三者的概率:
. ?* {. w! A( G* q7 t" v出庄0.458597% l) ^/ J3 I" [  y
出闲0.446247
/ r1 o: ~: Z4 P% z) X* H出和0.0951564 S' m0 _$ l! O% |; s+ ^! f
第二步去掉和局,把庄闲换算成100%,庄闲丙者加起来100%% C2 W" D2 p: I4 F8 j
庄+闲=0.904844/ E9 W; K) i) d1 k, @5 \0 b
换算成100%
5 G/ K& b  u0 \7 Y0 ^- R( I庄的概率是0.458597/0.904844=0.506824=50.6824%
9 n1 O0 ?  A9 a" N闲的概率是0.446247/0.904844=0.493176=49.3176%# R+ e# [4 h% Y  U1 F# X6 z8 W7 K
押庄家时的优势是
& @/ N% P4 Q0 d: h3 Q50.6824%*0.95(抽水金)=48.1482%: u7 L% W# i2 u
闲-49.3176%
6 E+ K9 n( V/ @  i) W两者相加玩家优势-1.1694%
. t- Q$ s" `- B" c# o8 ~押庄家时的优势是-1.3648%
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回复 9# DC老兵
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# s0 f  i2 R1 \/ [% |2 `    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36
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回复  DC老兵
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- V+ w; Z# D2 {    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36
. i( }6 R1 B/ o* G+ P& |acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 12:19

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    谢谢
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回复 11# DC老兵
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    不用谢,还有撒概率方面的问题没,你现在应该看到,反水如果达到2,是多么大的正收益
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13#
楼主数学挺好啊
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谢谢楼主 的分享
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚
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3 z  b4 R7 P/ [; u' g# ]. w! ~   这个是完胜庄家的唯一办法 但是有个前提 就是梭哈赢了 这辈子都不再玩了~
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提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
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17#
第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32; r  p; }2 |9 H4 ?+ |& l
第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ..., D# p* `" y5 d
acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23

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' g1 t8 P& Z# A9 k    说的太对了
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