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小分3种情况:% t5 ~4 L6 m" ?. } R( v
! B `' e i9 d
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。# j6 E1 Y v; i4 i2 v5 j; b
" L; x: X5 h, V
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
' f# Q% p8 _4 T- A4 p% ` Y5 R& g8 O/ {4 w* f) T6 ]' e9 F
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。1 N) G; a- S8 q# Z, w) s, F+ s
5 C% d E- U+ ^( G. E7 D2张牌8或9点的情况有:
t; g) W# @5 K
" \: P# _' M& U3 @ G" k/ g1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10
2 F' c) f4 C" @$ z+ |& T7 I1 M5 u+ ?# X
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
" h4 ?! F& H! U2 I5 P3 x6 p/ r# U0 \& ]1 H1 t; O* \
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/415
+ M5 W7 l4 C' Q, J
6 |1 k4 s, K! D" ?8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415) u6 A# t. ?" Z3 L; [: N+ Z
& @, I- M: }8 ^* X! F
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
* W3 D d; u) R( f e3 ?. t2 ?- j/ y: I) }- V
通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
+ {6 l6 A: r2 Q$ P- H1 K7 h+ F: n9 P5 H. f$ {
那么我们可以得出
# [% h* Z# i; z. \' G- i' I! y) K& |9 i( n8 e5 }
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
2 [6 R; E. f9 F" Y6 c$ ]* i! n9 i. d
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171 + j1 e9 S0 m( w) t3 o
9 l# o- s8 k" L2 K. C* T# O# o$ V8 E3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
" D3 _. E2 A, r; {! @2 }6 [% a# b8 D. {; k8 r% U) J4 L ?
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
" u8 t& @2 q3 t* ?. C
9 N% @6 z" H6 [; l& P3 f" ?百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677+ Z3 s5 s( m2 L; M0 q" z
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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