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小分3种情况:# @* C! ^: L. g" E& Z
: D3 ?0 \9 D- b1 ~1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。
; j9 y1 _; n1 e; h7 Y/ g) G& l6 K. m9 J
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
8 b$ Z. \8 L7 x0 @; {" b. e1 F
+ C. a" P# U6 g# j* J; m3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。
. v X/ M8 x; Z! S9 Y% h1 {( R, V" K; X1 A9 ^7 G9 U
2张牌8或9点的情况有:! }2 F5 b1 O7 V1 ~9 [1 \- I
4 e/ r1 E: B0 }) G. s. \9 }
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+101 L- |" Y r. o# O
7 g3 d, a9 F& i& s3 O
1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/415
. P, r0 V% x/ ?# }; O% w& F& a8 K3 @: T3 n! l5 h
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4154 h) k% q+ r; `4 X& ^9 w, }- O
4 X5 v; j8 J$ I) D( V8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
7 {5 m+ q; z8 _ B& s, F# T
/ @/ T& n; _8 d, w/ }& M" w4 {6 X由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。
# @: \, e$ b0 D5 n
! X, _" S1 q$ r8 F9 j ?- O+ R通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
9 e. x) B: u- H$ |4 m! M; n. K: b
$ {, ?6 u! I D那么我们可以得出8 f' z. V$ @1 i0 |0 t
% b- r$ y& _2 n! F% I( U1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662
, D9 s$ x+ Z# ?+ {* i# ]% y( w/ U# r& o
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
/ J! @+ l7 M/ l7 m# n
1 b, f; F) P4 d c2 i6 S3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491
1 U2 ^& D% a) }( I/ W8 _0 } e! ? X
所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.378869323
$ \& m) P8 n. A8 f% a+ }( v4 a/ s' \% x2 x4 B: k, N
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677
% G' k1 z7 G6 s; X; p |
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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