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[lastpost] => 2765338 什么是比特币？（转） 1758080848 舞出精彩
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币突破3万美元！分析师：BTC波动率来到5年低点（转载）
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近期比特币市场在29,000美元区间持续震荡，但昨(1)晚最低一度来到28,585美元后，
9 H0 R2 Q1 [. ?. ~! C# a开启一波快速反弹，撰稿当下最高来到30,047美元，再次站上3万美元、以太坊也在1,880美元附近震荡。) }1 N2 `& ^+ f- q
比特币波动压力到达顶峰，爆发即将到来
2 d3 u% b! |* [对于近期币价走势，研究机构K33 Research发布一份最新比特币研报指出，当前的低波动性正处于「火山爆发」 }: P' `) b5 [* u5 E8 W) L
前夕。报告首先指出比特币当前5日波动率已低于传统证券、甚至是黄金：比特币的五日波动率目前低于纳斯达克
, p$ O3 `' \9 {' l( f6 }$ O [! k指数、标普500指数，甚至低于黄金。IVs也紧随其后，跌至历史最低点。7 H: j) K1 ~2 S& z$ t& G% s
时间再拉长一些，比特币当前30天的波动率也已来到近5年的低点，这样的低波动率仅在2019年1月持续了8天。* L! L% ~$ v' m$ ^$ h m: |. y: z
历史经验告诉我们，比特币的波动性减弱往往意味着即将出现较大幅度的波动，因此当前的低波动期或许很快将
' R* `7 z% g" C+ P- \结束。K33高级分析师Vetle Lunde对此表示：我的短期观点是，市场的波动压力即将到达顶峰，爆发即将到来。
! ?# l/ f: P7 q* k5 a: y% ^7 ASEC对比特币现货ETF的回应将在短期造成比特币大幅波动
1 T6 }& l- g% C4 e同时Lunde认为比特币的波动需要大型事件作为催化剂，在他看来，美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对Ark21Shares、
; p8 R: X0 e$ D& a6 x. z贝莱德和其他公司提交的比特币交易所交易基金(ETF)文件的回应，可能在未来几周或几个月内造成比特币波动。& c4 H5 B. O* K7 Y
但Lunde并未对此作出积极判断，而是认为所有申请都将会被驳回并延期：我预计所有正在进行的申请都将被推1 `4 p0 K6 v$ B0 Z
迟，至少要等到Grayscale与SEC的诉讼得出结果。但我预计这些事件对市场波动的影响不会那么大。尽管如此，
& s3 L$ A1 P8 \3 d9 r9 ?我还是倾向于持有大量比特币，并在整个夏天更积极地增持比特币，以防判决早于预期。
+ [* I- L0 O) jK33看好2024年加密货币市场: I4 t9 h/ I$ Q% I( l
此外，Lunde也对近期发生骇客事件的稳定币流动性协议Curve Finance作出评价，认为当前该协议面临的清算风/ U. P$ J6 e1 R. V+ N0 N) ~2 F
险将对市场造成难以预测的负面影响：这些清算可能会对市场产生巨大的负面效应，推高波动性，这些事件很难' p. r# c$ x7 a5 t3 x) |
提前预测。
. J8 ]9 H* a7 e- I" [0 W但总体而言，Lunde仍然对加密货币在2024年的表现表示看好，无论是在比特币减半之前还是之后，以及比特币
5 W* [! b/ T: g6 u, e现货ETF的走向如何。
4 Z2 P. V" Q4 ^) }# a/ @5 e! ]9 \: F6 p! g
4 j* S. s0 H1 ` |
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