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[lastpost] => 2782657 今日虚拟币市场还是涨多跌少的了 1763538415 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。
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# n2 U) Y; {/ O% i% Q/ M但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。& L: w! x7 l! |3 c! ~3 l" U j
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？
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" g- C3 k4 F q* D2 z开局艰难，但历史看好牛市
, F, k8 P$ s$ d* T) D% _: X2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。$ h3 \+ D7 C7 j+ f8 S$ O9 k5 L
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来源：Alphractal
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$ R/ ~0 H! z O5 C9 k15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。( L; u; l8 P; ]. y5 f
* M' F; j! _% F7 K尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。. o9 }4 ?; W9 B+ v; ?- C
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事情变得有趣了, @: k( M/ h: T) l6 M* L. Q
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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0 [5 m7 m$ O( W0 s5 y7 _$ @来源：X
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( q& I5 X7 E& g4 G; t+ g# ~根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。3 L8 d! [, `" o, w
* \5 Z! Z% E+ [4 gBTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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! f" k" g) r! F9 N* a正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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/ o3 Z+ H/ U7 K$ Z1 E) r随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
0 `# N0 {$ ^3 k2 h经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。 v' E% X2 S& z
3 ?: i2 r& E/ z8 h3 h0 Q8 c来源：TradingView/ J# O6 n5 h% q( T( v1 M
0 G' L9 ]7 a* z. `, n日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。7 z1 R& G g6 Y* m. I0 m+ \
6 g. a+ M* }: f7 [0 y U然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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9 x$ C) m c8 G: W" ^% R突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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