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[lastpost] => 2786056 分析师预测比特币在 2025 年剩余时间内的走势如下（转） 1764656338 小作文
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[虚拟币交流]
分析师预测比特币在 2025 年剩余时间内的走势如下（转）
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比特币在 12 月 1 日的突然下跌加剧了市场的恐慌情绪，促使分析师们在年底之际采取谨慎的态度。
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过去一个月，这种担忧占据了主导地位，反映出比特币在 12 月份下跌了 7%，并且根据 CoinGecko 的数据，从 10 月 6 日创下的 126,080 美元的历史高点下跌了约 31%。
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专家表示，加密货币市场目前处于脆弱状态。解密负面消息会打压市场，而积极的进展也无法改善市场情绪或价格。# ?$ w0 @( i; O: |
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加密货币做市商Caladan的研究主管Derek Lim表示，比特币可能继续维持区间震荡，波动性较高，价格将在83,000美元至95,000美元之间波动。解密.* ~" m- [& {# p+ J$ s8 d
4 L; V0 ?; F! Q' l不过，专家们仍然坚持认为，比特币目前处于牛市回调阶段，而不是已经进入熊市。
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接下来，作为加密货币领头羊的加密货币会如何发展？
$ {* q& f/ A% I. m5 \比特币在12月1日的暴跌似乎是由宏观经济数据的缺乏、MicroStrategy困境加剧的不确定性以及对Tether破产的猜测所导致的。解密之前据报道.
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与此同时，在股市和加密货币暴跌的情况下，黄金价格上涨，这暗示着普遍存在的避险情绪转变。! {* A" ^+ g$ a; g. T
7 A Z- Y3 K* W9 z$ m! k( ]HashKey Group高级研究员Tim Sun表示：“比特币要想重拾明显的上涨势头，宏观环境需要比人们目前预期的改善幅度更大。”解密这与林氏的保守观点不谋而合。
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孙宇晨指出，比特币不太可能在 2025 年结束前进入强劲的单向上涨趋势，他认为更现实的情况是“努力形成底部”。
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: ^0 j" e& [0 n' D$ T. t“流动性状况和市场情绪仍然相当疲软，”该分析师解释说，并补充说，即使 12 月份降息，也比不上美联储对 2026 年的展望。
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除了眼前的整合之外，还有其他方面需要进一步整合。! f: B8 f ~: b$ ~
尽管美联储周一结束了量化紧缩计划，消除了一个重要的结构性阻力，但林指出，积极影响需要时间才能在市场流动中显现。' ~& H1 K3 ~/ {# F& Z# x$ l
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他将这种情况与 2019 年的情况进行了比较，当时风险资产在美联储结束上一轮量化紧缩周期后大约 6 到 12 个月开始大幅上涨。$ U% c; d H8 o/ R- s3 \1 U
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展望未来，Lim预测比特币在中长期内的交易价格将在11万美元至13.5万美元之间波动。- m5 }9 u3 {' m6 d) }
% Q. O6 _8 e) @/ m: v$ u3 {/ E/ }这一前景取决于风险资产关键催化剂能否协同运作，其中最主要的是美联储的政策指引。要维持这一利好因素，需要美联储在2026年年中之前再降息两到三次，量化紧缩政策结束后资产负债表保持稳定，以及机构投资者继续积极采纳相关政策。9 T# I. |% z# Y
" H. c- M3 I$ X6 x牛市回调与熊市0 |8 |1 n$ I! I
分析师将当前的回调与真正的熊市周期区分开来。2 B" r1 q) `* W8 P
: {' O) P+ x- E孙先生解释说：“真正的熊市通常涉及长期资金撤离市场、市场叙事崩溃以及机构大幅撤资”，这表明当前市场受到风险偏好下降和流动性紧张的拖累。5 H8 s# h6 i1 W$ f/ \
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孙指出，与上一轮周期高峰不同，“我们没有看到普遍的狂热或投机过度”。, t0 T& L# R, H! ?( F) S6 f+ K
( z B' Y" S& _% T; ]4 Z“只要人们对美联储在 2026 年采取宽松政策的预期没有完全落空……这一阶段更有可能是底部盘整，而不是新的长期熊市。”
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$ w% s8 L' j% H不过，林警告说，如果跌破 75,000 美元，那么这一预测将失效，并可能导致更深的下跌。& s: J& m0 k1 L0 `8 j2 E
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这波回调确实磨人，9万附近震荡跟赌大小似的，拿稳别被洗出去。 |
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