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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。
/ J7 t% S" s/ J. r# j; ~$ P自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。4 S0 T3 Z6 E$ R# h% y9 l; U! C
% F# q# Z4 s% C& p' A! |, @* k8 Y7 `自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
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阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
7 s8 y0 J( A n! m4 S+ f- J, C) ~$ w$ \! @2 P9 d1 x
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
: E" ~4 Z1 s+ h7 G, u
* ~( o( M* ^; R8 k: k2 `那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
/ L9 x4 g: \2 l8 e
* n$ }1 U \4 A$ G; l! H! R观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
6 h; o0 m5 u/ K* k- M分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。
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: q( B; u# p" g0 ?' k6 \. g" H上周降至1300 BTC。2 |$ E [8 M2 y( s* T; a( `6 N d
" W3 H3 I2 V8 k8 F- v! K4 H从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。
; }$ m- F# x% S) F1 r* |! I' ]2 Y1 j$ Y
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。
) c1 z' V- f6 t* q/ W) k
" k" U4 V6 a2 n! i鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
8 D! O' N5 v% [0 W$ i5 P- @9 P
, \' E6 a0 E6 z, C$ USantiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。0 ^- o7 W: N8 \/ b" n
D6 T/ Z' @) V" ]) b尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。- `! I8 U" w' F( S$ J# h
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比特币会突破其区间吗?& b o; ^# M; m4 G5 G; Y S" s
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。6 z) W; H1 |" z! k
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根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。
/ J" Y1 h8 E1 C: G: X
z6 p0 j# @6 C- q! P& d因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。/ u. I, ]2 x2 ] X9 s# B- K+ k6 }
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技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。0 L: \8 Z9 T. M! b: K4 K# D
) O' d' A; b4 M# E位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。4 C) v9 A1 x" F6 l8 b
然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
! N) Y0 {; h4 A$ C/ K% B1 p0 J0 q/ \+ k
4 m$ d( H7 _0 ~* j( d ~8 j2 j j/ I根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。1 h( g4 _3 N5 u8 M' i$ Y' t5 s7 @9 g
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