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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。
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" ]4 o- e+ x; N, A: B' N比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”! g* A5 U k' c7 w# `& @% P1 j
Venturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。5 {+ w1 n0 a! D: }* ?, u
+ m! V$ }) _( b7 t$ V+ D就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。
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- c# c* M4 a0 D' r“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道：; W8 Y; d! b O6 e
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”1 ]( O2 Z6 \& ~8 |" T
+ a" t4 u/ n3 q- K/ z8 h8 n- Y. |这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。
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即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。, R% v2 N! q9 a/ h7 @
5 J n5 y. p! ]# l0 H: a3 o H8 R- QVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：4 g5 N" u, Y. G' c/ A! F
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“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”0 Z8 S* d5 t# P; s/ A7 v- o0 O
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底部预测不断出现9 P. r4 f* d7 l, I3 U+ W
与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。
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这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。
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链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。0 X/ r! j5 {7 q
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+ r V: t0 F' k: o1 I, b; D0 B) h7 HBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode! [4 }& P/ j& \( ^) v
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上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。2 R5 V6 Q/ k* y1 \
" K1 N0 ^& m8 A! X0 k+ M9 w+ G卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。9 g3 O4 A9 d- G( C* [/ `; f" N8 t$ z
. y& m2 b0 y0 O4 t交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。( l/ R2 V' P+ |: }
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