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[lastpost] => 2810805 Arthur Hayes：每一次中东战争，都是做多比特币的机会？（转） 1772472724 caoch
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中信证券(26.430, 0.45, 1.73%)发布研报称，加密货币具有较好的隐私性和抗通胀性，自诞生以来成长迅速，并且正在逐步正规资产化。随着加密货币的刚需扩大，7 Y. [2 S# p2 R: _7 ?
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形成类似黄金的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。但短期来看由于货币化不足和边际定价者风险偏好高，加密货币反而投机性更强。中长期内，预计加密货币和黄金都将受益于% z7 T; }! ^* C8 e6 }1 x* d
. o, E- u- L! n/ ^0 `" J逆全球化、去美元化带来的货币化。“未来黄金”不必然包含比特币，但大概率有加密货币。短期内加密货币有望受益于特朗普任期内可能的监管放松，但需等待贸易、外交政) I5 p! E! X' o$ J) Y# o3 d- t
' h* Z, l% A) D$ k6 @5 V2 q' M策的确定性。
/ _& A+ h5 |1 [: l% ]' ?6 | d" [, j
中信证券主要观点如下：( J& V' l E9 d
3 ^* A$ S( {& Q9 I! o U 加密货币是一种基于区块链技术的数字货币，具有较好的隐私性、抗通胀性。
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自其诞生以来，市场成长迅速，例如比特币呈指数型增长。: Q+ }' B9 \" P% a- W
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近期加密货币表现不佳，并未体现出避险属性。. i7 _5 F: s3 p7 g$ b
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2024年比特币主要有一季度和四季度两波集中上涨，分别是因为ETF发行、比特币减半、亚洲投资者热情高；以及特朗普交易影响。但2025年以来比特币及其他加密货币表现6 l) l. s! c/ n# t+ E: c
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不佳，与黄金走势背离，并未体现出避险属性。' N9 K. z( Z f
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加密货币市场与黄金愈发相似。- u6 |7 ~. m0 ?0 B& @' t$ T
7 s/ w6 J* @! [$ z( @1 l; u 从规模来看，加密货币市场仍明显小于黄金市场，增长空间巨大。从持有结构来看，两者都是集中度较高，且加密货币市场持有结构更加不透明，均有利于价格的长期上行。7 C5 c3 M9 n2 `2 K* b" ?, A
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加密货币开始出现刚性需求，形成与黄金类似的刚需托底，投机定价的格局。) |( X' j6 q3 a' B3 n* P: {
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由于加密货币在跨境支付、抗通胀信用方面具有优势，形成了快速增长的刚性需求。加密货币正在快速的“正规化”、“黄金化”，与黄金一样形成了刚需，以确保其难以出现泡沫
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破灭、大量投机交易完成定价的格局。; g7 n* I6 F/ ?) N: O3 G8 N
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短期内，加密货币的货币及避险属性仍不及黄金，因此表现背离。7 t% E3 ~5 I. o* u2 I
" Y4 V, G% E# H* A8 m 我们认为根本的原因是1）社会认知、税收制度中加密货币的货币化程度不及黄金。2）由于加密货币高成长性，边际定价者的风险偏好高。短期内，加密货币避险属性和投机属性
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& @1 ^+ ?; U4 \* M/ K1 M共存，后者更占上风。长期来看这些因素望将淡化。+ e" b, l: b" p, U. B/ x
: ^( ?: O" c8 w z/ X 长期来看，加密货币料仍然有极大的增长空间，最根本的逻辑是逆全球化及去美元化，驱动黄金、加密货币的货币化。8 K y# |2 N$ g- ?: } h
p! [! M3 d0 m% J+ E. \ 2008年以来逆全球化和去美元化进程持续，预计加密货币坚实的市场需求仍将持续扩大。我们判断在长时间维度上，黄金和加密货币的货币属性，都会是“未来黄金”。由于技术劣9 G) y. J7 E! N
) V4 {* Q ~! O8 }( K: }势，比特币不必然是未来的黄金，但“未来黄金”大概率包含加密货币。尽管如此，我们认为技术优势战胜信念优势需要很长时间，比特币在加密货币中的独有地位仍将维持很久。: o/ D7 g0 h- s. {! M" p# v; y2 e
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展望未来四年，比特币及其他加密货币在特朗普的支持下仍然可能表现亮眼，但短期转好需要特朗普给出确定性信号。3 {4 M! c1 y* B8 l. @
: I2 I; K: C( l- M# s4 w* y 本届特朗普ZF与硅谷的紧密联系让加密货币有望受益于潜在的监管放松。但短期内贸易政策不确定性等因素压制了风险偏好与流动性宽松。转涨或需等待特朗普给出外交和贸易政
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策确定性。未来若特朗普ZF对俄政策转向也可能带来风险。
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风险因素：/ p" ?9 J9 M* N2 [# _/ S
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特朗普ZF政策超预期；美国联邦债务问题超预期；美联储货币政策宽松不及预期；地缘ZZ风险。
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