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比特币 (BTC) 和其他加密货币经历了“历史比例”的熊市
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分析师指出,比特币($BTC)和其他加密货币目前正经历“历史性的”熊市,数字资产领域经历了“历史上最大的资本外流事件”。
链上分析公司 Glassnode 的分析师表示,持续的加密货币熊市可能是有记录以来最糟糕的一次,因为其分析发现,在加密空间的总市值跌破 1 万亿美元大关后,比特币的价格跌破 200 - 日简单移动平均线。
该指标“通常用于”标记 BTC 是处于牛市还是熊市,因为价格保持在其 200 天移动平均线之上表明加密货币正在经历牛市,而低于该移动平均线的价格表明它处于熊市市场。该指标还用于 Glassnode 的 Mayer Multiple (MM),它在历史背景下分析 BTC 的价格。
Glassnode 写道:
历史上第一次,2021-22 周期的 MM 值(0.487)低于前一个周期的低点(0.511)。4160 个交易日中只有 84 个(2%)的收盘 MM 值低于 0.5。下图以绿色显示了对应于 MM 值为 0.5 的价格区间,以及历史上低于该价格区间的天数。
Glassnode 还指出了已实现资本化指标的 30 天头寸变化,它“是市值的一种变体,它根据上次移动时的价格对每个 UTXO [未使用的交易输出] 进行估值”,因为它“允许我们查看在统计基础上相对每月流入/流出 BTC 资产的资本。”
该公司补充说,使用这一衡量标准“比特币目前正在经历历史上最大的资本外流事件,与平均值的标准差 (SD) 达到 -2.73。这比发生在 2018 年熊市结束时以及 2020 年 3 月的抛售中的下一个最大事件要大一个 SD。”
资料来源:Glassnode
Glassnode 的分析师一直在深入研究正在进行的熊市,并在本月早些时候发布的视频中对其进行了分析,该视频由Bitcoin.com首次报道,他们指出,历史上 BTC 的价格在熊市期间下跌超过 80%,然后触底。 . 加密货币从 69,000 美元的历史高位回撤 80% 约为 13,800 美元。
该公司的分析师补充说,随着 BTC 市场的成熟和增长,“以美元计价的潜在损失(或利润)的规模自然会随着网络的增长而扩大。”
来源:金色财经 |
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