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[虚拟币交流]
比特币涨到40万美元还是2万美元?为什么分析师不能就BTC的未来达成一致(转)
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加密货币市场正在经历低迷,顶级玩家比特币和以太坊在过去24小时内下跌了5%以上。% ]: g+ K7 C- q9 q! G
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在3月中旬达到7.5万美元的历史新高后,最近的下跌引发了投资者的兴趣。有趣的是,领先的加密货币在过去三个月里下跌了大约20%。0 ]6 y* V; ?( t- }2 i
I2 t* L! L8 f: c尽管如此,投资者对比特币的热情依然存在。( w. @5 `6 e' i; M) W" b/ o+ @
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忽略短期噪音
' w- Q5 o9 _8 f" D' L( c% Q交易员表示,这些波动是短期的,并将下跌视为市场的“常规调整”。! Q; n0 N/ ~- i# t8 N1 d
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AMBCrypto对储备风险指标的分析进一步证实了这一点。4 D; m3 u! X3 A/ E1 }
* p. K& M; |, F/ f1 d1 N& B8 E# i这张图表评估了长期比特币投资者对价格的信心。在撰写本文时,储备风险为0.002,表明BTC持有人的信心。6 l( j5 h t5 w8 Y( C+ E, e
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随着最近价格的下跌,这可能预示着在可能上涨至70000美元之前开始积累,从而使看跌头寸处于不利地位。
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阿波罗的联合创始人托马斯·法勒也表达了类似的观点,他说:,
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“价格可能会降至4万美元,但可能会升至40万美元。这就是事实,这是一个很好的赌注。”( v/ b5 J5 T' w B1 M3 G
Raoul Pal将其与BTC目前的价格及其最近的历史新高(ATH)进行了比较,他补充道,
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- A7 F0 m# i* W1 x“这是BTC在12个月内第四次修正20%……很普通。”3 o+ S* {7 o: W5 r# L9 g1 `
批评家就是批评家
7 c6 S1 u5 l" e9 U然而,像彼得·希夫这样的怀疑论者对比特币的前景持悲观态度,预计比特币将回归2万美元。
$ |7 {; o0 p. o3 `( Q, z' _; N% N
+ i% v }) B5 n/ ]加密货币分析师Rekt Capital指出,& d0 T# F+ \. F# v* V% y" |' \6 v
( d( u3 Q8 ^( i0 a9 Z* r“比特币越来越接近其最终底部,每多下跌1%。”
* c" v( ?8 ^. z6 F9 H7 [尽管受到批评,加密货币交易所BitMEX的前首席执行官Arthur Hayes在其最近的文章《左曲线》中认为,BTC最近的下跌提供了一个买入机会。他说,2 S. m0 v3 Z4 O6 A( i
+ _6 a' H& V' u+ t2 S: l1 L“这是利用最近加密货币下跌缓慢增加头寸的最佳时机。”& j) B" z5 m' t
此外,Hayes强调,在实际收益率为负的时期,比特币是一种替代投资,可以对冲法定货币贬值。3 l) i5 R% r9 o0 t! z) A" U$ e
3 ~) m, |. K, u总而言之,这些交易所表明,尽管经历了过山车般的旅程,但比特币的长期前景看起来很有希望。
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