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& g! f" j* O8 ]" z$ k 美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整，这将对经济产生短期的负面影响，然而，过去一周的市场条件不太可能
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9 d% S8 ~- u. B/ c% l m/ @成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施，这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。
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- U* |9 B$ r$ l例如，虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀（即造成滞涨），某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀$ h H, l" ?$ c
' |: r- z& z `3 Q' ? C4 P. b' U. u# C（即减少滞涨），最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。' O( ?' q- B/ _7 [& o3 [, Z( e, ?
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0 u G( O( P$ O5 d 尽管前景存在不确定性，最好的猜测是，美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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1 @# Y( h+ p' I, z' f+ q关税本身可能会减缓增长，但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的
: M$ Q9 |7 I0 c
3 ^! ^1 b2 E" r政策，尽管最初受到关税的冲击，GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲，历史表明，一段时期内持续的通胀: Y( B$ k0 s$ t, d0 i2 t# s& c6 h$ s8 i
; Q6 O4 w; b0 Y: V1 {压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。
F- F9 T3 l: k: d: a( u8 n; }
( |2 |' I6 n1 d2 ]4 X3 i 此外，就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样，比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。
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+ F3 N3 \+ B: {& K7 Q0 P8 ?今年以来，白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化，这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资，包括撤销一系列诉讼，确保资产! ]' ~$ O. @: h5 q5 I
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对传统商业银行的适用性，以及允许受监管的机构（如托管人）提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战4 ~( I+ h; _+ H
# x$ G" W* @! S* c4 h% |略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素，但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
# d+ Z) }1 Y7 B2 z' |9 Y$ j6 P) `6 A1 }5 J7 ?7 s1 j) U2 A
看，宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善，可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。. u' V; K% m! k4 S. T9 G) @( a% h
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