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[lastpost] => 2811367 纳斯达克进军预测市场:华尔街用「是或否」押注科技指数(转) 1772601978 caoch
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! }; m! A7 b4 y6 N# t7 p 美国贸易政策的突变正在使金融市场发生调整,这将对经济产生短期的负面影响,然而,过去一周的市场条件不太可能
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" ]7 a5 m& R0 G: b2 k( E成为未来四年的常态。特朗普ZF正在实施一系列政策措施,这些政策将对 GDP 增长、通货膨胀和贸易赤字产生不同的影响。. }. a# ?+ f) p7 V( D, i: C
8 b$ D, s$ T: Q1 c例如,虽然关税可能会减少经济增长并提高通货膨胀(即造成滞涨),某些类型的放松管制可能会提高增长并降低通货膨胀
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(即减少滞涨),最终的结果将取决于白宫在这些领域内实施政策议程的程度。
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% b; \( f/ @6 I; S 尽管前景存在不确定性,最好的猜测是,美国ZF的政策将在未来 1 至 3 年内导致美元持续疲软和总体高于目标的通胀。
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# P9 X8 |) {" p6 e7 Y关税本身可能会减缓增长,但这种影响可能会部分被减税、放松管制和美元贬值所抵消。如果白宫还积极推行其他促进增长的 ]3 R. U* @( \8 O
' {2 \4 |: J( t7 |
政策,尽管最初受到关税的冲击,GDP 增长仍可能保持相对良好。无论实际增长是否强劲,历史表明,一段时期内持续的通胀8 g8 W1 |7 l* a2 |$ R/ z0 U c! ~
2 x, U, `' x$ i- o压力对比特币和黄金等稀缺大宗商品来说可能是有利的。0 B6 Y( W& u+ V! G: B; R
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此外,就像 20 世纪 70 年代的黄金一样,比特币如今拥有迅速改善的市场结构 — — 这得到了美国ZF政策变化的支持。
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7 h+ ]5 q- `5 w) d6 E今年以来,白宫实施了一系列广泛的政策变化,这些变化应该会支持对数字资产行业的投资,包括撤销一系列诉讼,确保资产
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c2 V* A' \2 @: P9 v& j对传统商业银行的适用性,以及允许受监管的机构(如托管人)提供加密货币服务。这反过来又引发了一波并购活动和其他战; s" Y9 b. k4 s
0 V$ `& R3 z: V4 ^5 V9 }略投资。新关税对比特币等数字资产估值是一个短期的不利因素,但特朗普ZF的加密货币特定政策一直支持该行业。综合来
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看,宏观经济对稀缺大宗商品资产的需求上升和投资者经营环境的改善,可能是未来几年比特币广泛采用的有力组合。
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