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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势; ?* h) S% m' a# T9 @& [
( D) b4 ]7 q% U, `- _8 I/ k4 I过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。# S) G5 G2 f" b6 o
1 K5 L8 a p( R" r! M& V% APPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。8 T/ _9 d- N# l) X8 }
: U) r, a& K# q( t# a7 ]" S, M) K- FCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。0 L8 p, y7 J3 r
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
9 z3 h# Y5 P8 U; {, j; w# }0 m3 v
; R' P. ]1 Y$ e& Y当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
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微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;0 b' t& |) w7 Y% O$ H C7 y6 o8 ~3 B
* }$ F1 W. y; hETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。- ~- J4 J$ ]" k, ^' y
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比特币价值回归:0 c7 X* Q' o1 g9 ^0 K" a* e# O4 L
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市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。6 p1 z# S9 a' m3 u! h. @
% S7 Q: u, ^* V4 U2 p* v2 X3 k/ t% G随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。
( B. i2 q: H$ o, V; H. l3 i4 |+ f+ \
加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。7 [4 d% ]; d' c, H2 A
) G0 e" X4 ?1 Z1 C+ H3. 市场热点与反弹情况6 o1 J) F; c( ~7 y4 p( B
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ETH:" S3 o( A" f6 q1 d4 k
, L, m8 L6 ~8 e( Q- j虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。
3 U3 w. s- n" f9 n/ ^9 U! _' M1 E$ N7 y8 ]# _. Q8 j u, b
机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。$ P( i R& n7 U1 k4 u
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BTC:, h( r. n( t0 j% J
2 M4 T% @* }- B# R尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。" X V8 s, j8 Z8 g4 U
% Y: Y# T2 ]8 B c7 x E+ \
如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。% [! J( Z5 I/ w5 _- ^" f
; G( w9 A6 ^! N' mSOL与XRP:
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9 {' p/ i) F ]% u6 F1 ^# nSOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
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* K& {) Q. J0 M OXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。
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9 B/ E% l2 A6 X$ l! v7 W; z其他热点项目:1 R/ w5 j# I1 E) a1 }; `" b
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
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山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。
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6 l, H* t) Z8 n4. AI赛道与新兴项目5 N7 D& E' R7 M$ M$ }) T1 a$ c) V
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AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。/ w& Y4 D& n2 t! L% B
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蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。
: w+ d) g P; k1 t# d/ R8 A) ^+ r0 O3 X! d
新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。
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市场展望1 i3 W7 n6 ^7 Z/ }% T, g: i( U, p
6 e3 N) O. |! m, ]. T3 b$ h1 S随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。
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