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[lastpost] => 2802434 比特币支付仍落后于以太坊——为什么比特币永光早期采取了不同的策略（转） 1769946334 22301
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币还会跌?跌到哪才是底?大跌后百倍机会在哪里?我算出来了（转）
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昨夜BTC大幅回撤，破位30日均线98.7k，暂至96k附近。原来纸老虎也是老虎。宏观态势方面的原因，关注我近期文章的朋友应该心如明镜：3 E5 R8 Q) F& w6 t! Z! i! ]4 m
2 R: z: _$ S9 \2 N* _/ o5 Z一是前段时间借谷歌Willow量子计算机所渲染的恐慌。
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6 ^5 b2 e" D' a3 }' b# j6 ]二是昨日凌晨美联储给出未来降息的负面预期。未来1-2周，就是消化这个消息的阶段 。
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T% Y1 G( _+ p' |! H比特币下探95,700，会跌到多少？底在呢？
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$ X5 U" E; m* P" D( I3 d; F我们看K线，会发现BTC已经高位横盘35天 。而且底部越来越高，虽然12.5那天突破10万下砸90,500附近，但是之后的下跌都稳在94,000的上方，直到美联储会议出现黑天鹅。后面还有一个美国把BTC纳入战略储备的预期 。9 {- A! R1 Z7 B" T$ j+ W( d1 o
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目前跌得差不多了，说白了就是K线价格哪怕下跌94,000以下，然后又快速收回，这不叫砸破支撑。再看链上数据BTC 的URPD数据，如图94,000、95,000都有强支撑。, C' u& c2 d- X/ S: a7 ^/ h
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毕竟，数据是死的，人的情绪是“活”的。现在属于高位震荡等待新的方向。新的方向就是明年Q1。" l8 b9 Z9 c% T6 i" U1 q; N
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币圈谁为刀俎，谁为鱼肉？山寨赚钱机会在哪？5 o4 u) e1 r n& G4 y& D
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零和博弈的市场，无非是一个人的钱进另一个人的口袋。无论是长牛还是长熊，这个本质都不会变。市场一直在变，所以大家观点也一直在变，不要觉得上个月看好，这个月不看好就是不坚定，就是墙头草。
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ETH啥时候变强势的？我感觉是上几次ETH大的爆仓开始的，多头基本都投降了，所以11.21日我感觉ETH要变强了。. e ?# X. ]1 y+ L" G) l
P ?# I$ s: `/ @2 x: `ORDI这个币也有类似的逻辑，市场的多头都爆仓差不多了，都投降了，后面可能会好走一点。但是ETH是山寨头，是公链，基本面比ORDI好太多了，没法直接比较。如果你有能力，尽量是玩新币，赚钱快很多。反正我坚信比特币生态一定不会缺席，配置一些没问题，没必要只配置这一个赛道。
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: ^& _. r1 i4 j9 ^ {8 T如果你想抄更深的底，那就看95,700的BTC再下探的情况同时山寨的下探幅度了。) h3 n# i" w1 G3 S( _6 l/ d$ @
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我之前也提示过，仓位是分仓还是一下子干下去，这个看个人习惯。还有抄底什么，前面文章我也提供过思路。或者你害怕，想等后面企稳，再进去，也可以的，毕竟没有人可以买在最低点。
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