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[lastpost] => 2801008 比特币刚刚突破 9 万美元大关。这三大利好因素能否帮助它守住这个价格？（转） 1769569236 rainwang
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[虚拟币交流]
比特币下跌，黄金触顶——但 Uptober 尚未结束（转）
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今年十月已经测试了比特币的[BTC]信徒。在通常被称为“Uptober”的月份过半时，BTC 发现自己处于陌生的境地，遭遇了历史上最糟糕的月中表现之一。6 A# E9 A( a" O% w [' n1 A
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但你看不到的是，比特币收盘上涨的可能性仍然很大，罕见的BTC-黄金图表细节也表明可能已经触底。
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Uptober 能否如期实现目标，还是说这将是它的终结？0 _* K0 }' l4 z- `) B# ~$ i! Q: K4 \+ D
$ ^- f2 K8 R$ J$ l0 n/ O$ \开局艰难，但历史看好牛市7 Z' w" a L2 S ]8 F/ M/ q
2025 年 10 月已经赢得了比特币十月份表现为有记录以来第二糟糕。对于通常看涨的月份来说，这是一个令人惊讶的转折。
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& `1 W3 B' m- G7 G& J+ X来源：Alphractal
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15年来，只有四个10月份收盘下跌。但鉴于比特币最终上涨的可能性高达73%，胜算仍然对比特币有利。3 M8 g* {7 {& M4 f. i8 }
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尽管开局不稳，但许多人相信本月结束前可能会转为看涨，保持这种势头。( P- f+ k# w2 x4 L$ M! ]4 ]
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事情变得有趣了! H" H1 C s; J' `6 X8 o5 h' [
BTC/黄金比率中罕见的信号表明形势可能很快就会发生转变。
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来源：X
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/ {, O; q; I% \4 B5 i' O7 _根据最近的数据，该比率已达到迄今为止仅在主要市场底部出现的水平，而这些时刻往往是从黄金转向比特币的最佳时机。% s8 }0 O+ O4 T( u+ f. n+ z/ q S' T
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BTC/黄金震荡指标徘徊在-1.8左右，从历史上看，这与BTC开始跑赢黄金的周期低点相关。
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2 R5 I6 M4 U7 ?+ O8 N正如 Alphractal 首席执行官 Joao Wedson 所说，该图表“基本上是在大声疾呼”现在是“出售黄金、购买比特币的时候了”。
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随着黄金价格处于高位，而比特币出现触底信号，风险回报方程现在可能更倾向于加密货币，而不是传统的避风港。
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空头在 10.7 万美元附近失去动力
! z$ k( D1 M9 Q经过几天的持续抛售，截至发稿时，比特币似乎稳定在 107,000 美元左右。# A/ k/ H- D8 W; H g& A# M
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来源：TradingView7 R4 `" N& l8 ?5 H, }! F5 S
; s+ I7 W( g' R, t; v; q1 Z# l日线图显示看跌势头减弱，RSI 指标显示 BTC 处于超卖区域。与此同时，MACD 图柱趋于平缓；如果买盘活跃，则可能出现动能逆转。
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% E% g% {' `! {/ R! z然而，BTC 的交易价格仍然低于关键 EMA（20、50、100），整体趋势仍看跌。
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( ~8 E" ]) I9 n" c突破 110,000 美元的决定性举措可能确认复苏，但在此之前，有点乐观永远不会伤害任何人。( l ^, o0 A- r) j! {9 `
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十月才过一半别急着下结论，比特币这货向来爱搞幺蛾子 |
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这波跌得挺狠，但老韭菜都懂，Uptober还没完呢 |
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