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[lastpost] => 2690013 比特币狂飙破纪录,特朗普效应引爆行情!CZ:稳住!别把鸡蛋放同个篮子 1731343585 天策-瑶娥
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在市场普遍预期美联储将在本周晚些时候降息之际,比特币周一下跌。
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这一最大的数字资产周一一度下跌2.8%,之后收复了部分跌幅,纽约时间早上08:00报58,655美元。包括排名第二的以太币和meme人群最爱的狗狗币在内的其他代币也走低。
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( w, j4 I, h0 j" x5 L3 U; T 美国四年多来首次降息将预示着金融环境更加宽松,对加密货币等高风险资产来说通常是利好。但投资者不确定周三美联储降息的幅度,也不确定市场对美联储官员最新预测——所谓的点阵图和( v2 C/ B, Q' H! r5 p' A( t0 F9 A# Q
+ o) L* D7 H) Z) B1 x; S9 g美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔最新记者会讲话会作何反应。% R1 S. U, \# j# \8 s- U; [: g
, R! @. e! g3 P" v7 I! a “降息的重要性不如鲍威尔记者会和最新点阵图发出的信号,” 流动性提供商Arbelos Markets的交易主管Sean McNulty表示。“如果指引和新闻发布会明显偏鸽派,我们预计比特币会跑赢。”( U4 x# P% ]" {8 o/ G; L* l
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8 i$ w) B, H' u 比特币在截至周日的7天里上涨了10%,创下7月以来的最大单周涨幅,这可能反映了对美联储降息50个基点的押注升温。市场目前预计美联储官员在即将举行的政策会议上至少会降息25个基点。
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上周华尔街关于大码降息的预期,出现了大起大落。当八月CPI数据显示美国通胀反弹后,市场上关于九月减息50点的说法几乎销声匿迹了。但是华尔街日报在星期四报道FOMC成员有考虑过大码/ k: ?# N' X. q' o, N2 ?2 y7 d
! H# E% g! s) W4 s减息这个选项,前纽约联储主席杜德利同日在新加坡更说“有强烈的理由”减息50点。市场情绪一夜翻盘,期货市场利率掉期定价40%的概率联储这次会减息50点。) ], C% ^8 {7 r4 d; W4 T7 ~
! q3 T+ r! F7 l这给货币政策制定者出了一个难题。除了稳定物价和最大化就业外,联储心照不宣地将维护金融市场稳定作为决策的第三个指标。如果减息力度不够,市场认为联储落后于形势,经济即将陷入衰退,
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& g% M; p- R& r$ g: e5 g则股市可能大跌。如果联储减息50点,另一批人则可能浮想联翩,是不是当局知道自己不知道的事情,债市可能因此大幅波动。& w: S, H/ D$ h
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