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[体育菠菜心得方法] 《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第一节]
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第一节 平手初盘
! k* `8 E9 K5 M9 a, s     + d$ B. I' X1 v. Q/ g/ w/ C) ?- m2 [
     平手中水,主队有利
; U1 u, m% @5 x2 j     在英超08-09赛季中,澳彩初盘平手盘占到所有380场比赛中的的13%,出现频率相对不高。在全部51场比赛中,主队21胜15平15负。主胜率不到5成、平局比率29%、客胜率比29%。此数据与06-07、07-08赛季的统计结果基本吻合,再看09-10赛季。& J  r7 ]) G, D' E  x5 L  M
     09-10赛季半程主队平手盘成绩统计:
) }$ u' Q, C1 n/ T2 ^     英超主队
7 Q3 G+ P- V, C' _' y. `     胜:13场 48%
. {  @" {( G$ U& F     平:5场 17%
' I" Y$ L+ J8 ]3 B     负:9场 35%8 ^1 K4 p7 y4 K! Q7 I' D
     通过09-10赛季已完成的初盘为平手盘的成绩统计,可以发现,在平手盘下本赛季英超主队的主场胜率50%、较之08-09赛季的41%明显提高,虽然只是多半程的统计结果,但是随着联赛深入,平手盘会逐渐减少,全赛季的数据不会出现太大变化。
8 v! c% _  z' l4 |" R, e: t     # v9 B8 a: M, T# G& n0 g) _
     一、初盘阶段
, m. o5 g) E8 X- @( `8 Y! ~0 y     具体到水位如下:! g. Q2 @1 f$ g8 R& M# H5 f
     初盘平手低水:英超主队3胜3平4负. |$ {  I# D7 ^, ]% c  v
     初盘平手中水:英超主队4胜2平0负) H! \1 f9 P3 ?% O1 _8 C
     初盘平手高水:英超主队6胜1平2负
* |& i4 O* I& A" n' j0 J1 o  A     
& d3 C1 _9 A* F! O" [& R     分析:初盘平手低水时,英超客队赢球的机会较多,该水位中0.74-0.78区间主队基本不败,足彩较支持31格局。而0.84水位出现了2次、主队均都输球,该水位下足彩建议双选30为主。初盘0.80、0.82水位下打出任何结果的可能都属正常,较缺乏规律性,14场足彩建议大包,任选9建议回避此类初盘水位下的比赛。+ V/ {! Y- G6 s3 f7 L
     初盘阶段平手中水,英超主队不败比率最高,足彩可重点考虑复选31,单场玩法可以博平手中水主队不败。6 s' l# K. c* A: A1 {+ w
     初盘阶段主队平手高水,打出平局的机会不大,足彩双选30较为正路。
9 _0 n0 z. b0 C2 t! [     
- ~, J" ?* k9 R8 ^  @. U     二、临场阶段1 v! E; T/ e$ C  F0 ^
     
$ e0 R. V9 v, _( \& H: q     具体到变盘和水位如下:
3 V2 q0 D, F0 o+ Y- ?9 j     临场阶段出现降盘:英超主队3胜2平2负
4 K2 _7 s, }8 M     临场阶段出现升盘:英超主队3胜2平1负
+ E7 t4 y- k/ x5 b1 h6 U1 J+ c) o" G     
3 R% X# i. k$ b; \5 k- ?' f& L5 D     临场阶段转为主队受让,存在客队临场大热可能,也可以正路理解是主队由弱转为更弱的体现,统计结果是主队3胜2平2负,虽然平局记录较高,但是浅盘下足彩还是复选30较为稳妥。
8 b# Z8 r! Q+ f: r4 {     临场阶段主队升盘,打出什么结果都属正常,足彩竞猜难度较大。而这个临场变盘的盘路中有3场与朴茨茅斯有关,为了尽可能做到精选,现将具体盘口表现做如下浅析:
7 a9 V3 H# o0 s7 [$ M& q5 d; B     : _0 n- I$ u  ?3 J6 c
     朴茨茅斯2-3博尔顿6 e- j& w9 {7 P
     初盘:0.82平手1.04, ^2 l5 J* s( ^, p) n/ A& R
     终盘:1.01平手/半球0.85
$ x0 N% K7 _  G2 J/ _8 {# D     7 O4 Y7 r( {0 T1 k# T2 c4 L
     朴茨茅斯1-1西汉姆
& U; v6 [$ Q4 g1 b, r     初盘:0.76平手1.107 p+ a0 V" C8 z4 K4 ^7 {2 @
     终盘:0.95平手/半球0.91
; j% y; D& y* ^1 @! w" t  ^     0 \% u3 }) [# g/ X
     朴茨茅斯4-0维冈竞技
- R. u, e6 u* O9 `/ _! R3 B     初盘:0.82平手1.042 S, S- {' _. O2 X3 v- @
     终盘:0.88平手/半球0.98; E( X: y. m' W! H
     
5 ^9 Y# `/ _3 y2 N- h     伯恩利2-1西汉姆
5 |# J$ W$ ^. k+ K" g) a     初盘:0.88平手0.98
3 F; ?. R9 p7 \5 z5 t+ X6 N     终盘:1.12平/半0.74
5 J6 D0 U: l, o  e$ R+ q     我们可以发现,0.82/1.04水位出现了2次,最终都分出了胜负。而初盘平手低水临场变化为平/半高水时主队盘口反倒没有1.12超高水安全。那么,根据这个水位变化,对再出现临场升盘的盘路,我们既可以对投注方向做出相对精确的判断。' \+ V) V6 B* V6 ~
     提示1:在平手盘0.82/1.04初盘水位,分出胜负的可能性较大。
5 `5 y0 n  f0 [7 ^/ E     提示2:平手超低水临场出现升盘,足彩应以31为主。平手低水升盘由冷转热的可能较大,足彩建议01双选。: h- r9 ^. g3 s, l
     9 v: v/ \! S. L2 z. o
     三、球队表现0 C2 F3 n( A, ^/ S% R3 @* u1 r2 v
     
% M7 Y+ {5 y+ |' N' x2 J. X: I     结合到球队表现,虽然本赛季利物浦持续低迷,但是在平手盘下却是表现最好的队伍,2战皆胜、分别战胜了曼联和阿森纳,可见红军面对强敌开出平手盘时并不处于劣势,反倒拥有神勇表现,足彩首选3值得信任。在该盘下值得认可的球队还有斯托克城、埃弗顿、曼城、博尔顿、西汉姆,这些球队均都在主场赢球或不败,平手盘下足彩打出3、1的可能都比较大。打出平局较少的球队是富勒姆、狼队、伯恩利,这些球队主场平手盘下非胜即败,作风硬朗少有平局,足彩注意多走两头。表现较差的球队分别是桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技,这些球队主场平手盘下不胜或输球的记录较多,足彩打出01可能较大。, i5 v" E# j$ d$ y
     % ?8 H& `/ G; l. w8 n% @7 W
     四、投注要点; L) u! o% o1 [! k: S! U
     要点1:平手中水、主多不败
; c: J" Y; l  x- l) l     要点2:平手降盘、走两头! e+ O, ^( G/ {" W& Z) T
     要点3:利物浦平手盘,多选不败
; I/ L# l5 ^; J/ t, g     要点4:伯恩利主场平手盘口价值较大/ E3 k3 |$ u# P' S) ?
     要点5:阿森纳平手盘不值得信任
- Z3 X. D. c$ M4 z5 [     要点6:桑德兰、阿森纳、维拉、布莱克本、维冈竞技注意30出现可能性较大  w# ^% ~7 ^/ A$ P' c. ]
     要点7:初盘0.80、0.82低水,足彩任选九或单场、竞彩时建议回避此水位下的比赛
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新人来学习下,谢谢楼主。
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