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" D/ M3 ]( k* V# {- O
很好的文章,转发给大家看。 [欧赔最优解]
" @. m7 @$ Q. C# S! H' f; j' j% d% N/ x2 O5 i& P
大部分盘口根据即时对比因素的不同,庄家根据自身体系出发,结合欧洲形势,可以得出一个最适合受注的赔率组合,这个组合基本上是庄家“最优”的选择。这是本轮讨论的问题。4 R- j5 S/ r1 k$ Y
有些比赛,经过考量,是无法得出一个最优解的,无论怎样做盘,利润都不大,甚至略亏损,这时的做盘原则就是“两害相衡取其轻”,选择一个相对能减少风险的组合受注。这是下轮讨论的要点。
B7 j {8 R+ |( l5 ?* o结合举例说明“最优解”思路的具体运用。5 w1 q0 ^5 A$ E/ \
' P6 C @5 g. {, K. }* u6 V; ?
[1]" q4 S p( Z* M
英超第21轮,[6]阿森纳0:0[2]曼联。
" ?. t9 d# h1 S3 M. |4 c: K! o威廉:2.5/3.1/2.5。/ K- u( O+ F3 ?
立博:2.25/3.2/2.75。% q; q' c) x9 @! K
这样的强强对话,如果分胜负的话,欧赔的最优解中,平赔需要得到合适的运用,就是充分使用平赔的分散作用(适合于绝大多数强强对话),现盘两大庄,都没有主动运用平赔思维和手法,主动放弃最优解,已经包含不分胜负的看法。
0 |6 ~. N0 {( ~& X5 _" G结合对比形势,具体对比你自备的资料中有。, U/ D) m" \- T" c4 w% }
主胜的开法:
; F. o+ g i/ J( o7 u威廉:2.5/2.9/2.62。
; K( r% _' d- m8 B7 Q7 n+ ?1 ^你看胜赔一样,都是2.5,与2.5/3.1/2.5,有什么区别?$ b3 Q4 [ W2 t1 l
2.9对于2.5的分散与3.1对于2.5的分散效果是不同的,前者对于胜赔的分散效果更大,这是以后经常讨论到的“微小”差异,欧赔的很多关键点就在这“微小”差异上,对微小要点的理解累积达到质变后就是欧赔层次的上升。
9 S( Z$ G. o$ R& [( a7 y主负:
! ]4 ], g( U$ l3 x* s7 B7 Z w威廉:2.37/3/2.7。类似赛事:皇马0:3巴萨。思路是营造平胜格局,适当阻碍负赔。1 B( G0 H, J+ e1 w+ W
去年,阿森纳2:4曼联,威廉是:2.2/3/3,左倾幅度更大,是为了更有效营造平胜格局,同时形成负赔的相应阻力,当然这个位置是有阻力但是也不能使得赔付增加太多。, t( ?( M. \9 }, t1 ^% O. s
平局:7 j n$ l/ T7 n; f b3 t5 F
现盘的思路是,威廉:平赔中庸(不清晰明确表达看好平局的观点、但是赔付也不至于庄家难以承受的位置),胜负均衡双向分散。立博:平赔营造小梯度3.2,但是配合拉低了胜赔,就是增大了胜赔的分散力,同时也没有损失负赔的多少分散力,综合起来足够分散3.2的平赔。( c3 ~ Z7 G4 g6 Y
$ N0 s* O4 U q* K4 T4 w[2]西甲第18轮,[4]维拉0:0[5]皇马
Q1 Y& w8 ?9 p: {2 W. \, ^0 f$ F5 p威廉:2.3/3.2/2.6。立博:2.5/3.2/2.5。
/ s0 _, ]2 v9 m+ ?8 A维拉由于参加欧冠进入16强增加了广义实力,皇马近况麻麻增加了失利可能,是经典平中庸胜负标准双分的思路。
" N; W0 i( p" ~, p5 u思维与上场一样。. _6 s/ t+ T, E; w& u& I
% O$ F! g0 W- `* U& F[3]1 k0 W! y8 e: B6 z
西甲第17轮,[3]皇马1:2[14]桑坦德。2 i7 `' Z0 t: | d+ x
威廉:1.28/4.5/8。
1 E3 J" G/ V* s立博:1.33/4/8,变1.3/4/9。/ y. O. t5 ~ V. F: d8 \& K
主队近况不佳,客队132可以。
% H9 Q4 \4 \* a9 `" W- N' M# @广义实力对比是:人气强队VS中下游球队。
$ [4 @2 E% w7 V主胜最优解:1.22/5/9.5,至多开到1.25/4.5/10。5 c+ B! u( h4 X6 b* d6 H% d
现在两家都将胜赔抬高,幅度不小,显然放弃了主胜的选择,则断定主队不胜,至于如何判断是负,有些概念需要逐渐讲解后再分析。
: P3 _# t3 n7 G: r m$ W+ W主胜的话,如果胜赔一定要开1.28,那么只能采用超低平来配合,才能有效分散“1.28这么高”的胜赔,例如:1.28/4/10,甚至小庄可以开出的1.28/3.95/10.5这样的组合。. i" t" R9 z6 y5 Z. A
; X: v) B% }! F, m+ d
那么,如何才知道,何种组合才是一场对阵的最优解?
) n z- _& k3 B+ J) J6 p( M结合我发给的赔率统计表,可以感性认识一下。 e5 {# X* X, e
同时需要一定比赛科学的有步骤的分析的积累,这是真正有价值的积累。 c7 F+ U6 k, ~1 ~( D9 W/ l3 ?% M
以后的“赔率框架位置”专讲,会起到定位作用。4 [5 _8 d7 E) ?. V0 ~/ O/ k
( u2 ^, K5 U/ L# x- q! V0 q( A
很多时候,寻找判断最优解,不一定要分析出具体位置,分析出相应的营造最优解的思路即可得到很大帮助。6 f$ b8 `7 r# R' R
5 Q+ A; Y( |7 p0 f9 c" J- i* j+ ?- u
例如:) u- e# ~- K, V6 G y4 Y' E
西甲第17轮,[20]贝迪斯3:0[19]阿拉维斯
8 m7 o, B5 @' F7 @3 C1 c/ ^双方战绩均劣,此时威廉1.8/3.25/3.8,分析开平局的思路,显然不能将平赔开这么高,因为无论如何做盘,3.25的平赔都是非常难分散的,连更优解也很难营造。
% K2 ]" ?: X( E4 S$ O所以,首先判断分胜负,结合基本实力,简单分析就是主胜。/ U0 H) k; t ^2 F5 [0 Z
/ j4 E. l/ m8 b0 H* x3 h# J# `
欧赔有很多此类很有效的分析思路,当然不是开高就不出开低就出的简单理解。
( T, H# t& y* B当类似思路多了,精准判定一场比赛则是现实可及的,无论场面多么热闹。 |
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