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[虚拟币交流]
这是比特币和加密货币熊市的开始吗？以下是您需要关注的内容（转）
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死亡交叉可能预示着趋势转变，但预计首先会出现反弹。' p, v% E9 }' p7 f* n3 e
鲸鱼投资者意见分歧：早期持仓者抛售，而机构投资者则增持。
, W4 F5 I4 I7 t) B, U) J5 o极度恐慌加上迫在眉睫的全球流动性危机，使得眼下的形势比简单的顶部信号要复杂得多。
/ {0 w: V8 I! J& [比特币的自从上周出现死亡十字闪光以来，我的状况就一直在急剧恶化。JRNY他并没有否认这一点。不过，他不断提醒人们，即使是糟糕的技术信号，在市场最终确定走向之前，通常也会迎来一波反弹。他直言不讳地说：即使如果这是熊市的开端，第一次大幅下跌后几乎总会反弹。他预计短期反弹的区间在9.2万至9.8万之间，可能在一两周内出现。之后，他表示，真正的走势——是延续还是崩盘——就会逐渐明朗起来。
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鲸鱼的行为截然相反，这让市场变得诡异。
: m j, Z- X9 t: H当你观察巨鲸的行为时，事情就变得更加奇怪了。一个中本聪时代的钱包——没错，就是那种古老的钱包——在持有11000枚比特币（自2011年以来）后，突然抛售了这些比特币。JRNY称之为“相当令人担忧”，主要是因为这个时间点感觉并非偶然。但几乎就在之后，另一头鲸鱼又吞食了超过20000磅的鱼。比特币短短48小时内，市场情绪几乎完全逆转。再加上MicroStrategy又买入了8000多枚比特币，矿工们即便持有未实现亏损也在囤积以太坊，整个市场格局发生了变化。散户恐慌抛售加密货币，而长期投资者则像什么都没发生一样悄悄加仓。这就像是两个截然不同的市场同时在运行。* W' K5 k' i# a
, }/ G% {3 U5 P# {* p没有哪个周期模型能够真正解释正在发生的事情7 R- Z+ X* Z! G/ N# s( N# Q
这是那种专家们自己都无法达成共识的奇特时刻。汤姆·李认为以太坊（ETH）目前已经触底。亚瑟·海耶斯则认为，由于大量新流动性的涌入，整个周期可能会持续到2027年甚至2028年。而那些坚持四年周期论的人则认为峰值已经过去，现在只是正常的下跌。JRNY对此不以为意，提醒大家没有人能百分之百确定。如果真有人能预测未来，就不会在凌晨两点还在推特上发帖讨论了。不同的观点可能都有部分正确之处，这就是纷繁复杂的真相。
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流动性或将成为真正的市场驱动力2 j2 h$ I0 X' `+ C7 q) b: y) [5 L
他不再整天盯着图表，而是将目光投向全球宏观经济形势。美国正在酝酿新的刺激计划。日本刚刚宣布了1100亿美元的刺激方案。天朝正在注入超过1万亿美元的资金。加拿大重启了量化宽松政策。全球M2货币供应量正在飙升。这并非“牛市的保证信号”，但从历史经验来看，大规模的流动性浪潮最终往往会将资金推向风险资产。即便目前恐慌情绪已达到顶峰，但这并不能抹杀大量新增资金最终会流入加密货币市场的事实。只不过，这可能不会在人们期望的那一刻发生。
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3 F; {4 E1 C3 z. H4 U3 e! [: d不要让恐慌控制长期计划
: ]- L* ^" ~1 @( R' v6 Z: X最后，JRNY 指出了一个令人震惊的现象：过去 155 天内买入的比特币中，约有 95% 处于亏损状态。这种情况与以往重大周期底部附近的情况类似。他建议观众在超卖期间采用美元成本平均法进行投资，而不是盲目抛售。历史上一些最糟糕的第四季度之后，往往很快就出现了强劲反弹。他的核心观点很简单：恐慌性抛售通常会锁定损失，而追逐上涨的K线通常会导致后悔。多年来缓慢而有条不紊的积累几乎总是胜过情绪化的决策。
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