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[真人] 求教百家乐优势概率和返水极限问题
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1#
本帖最后由 DC老兵 于 2013-5-22 11:21 编辑 0 L0 Q: ~* T9 E3 a
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刚和一个朋友聊到优势问题
& C; Y0 q6 p* D8 l' H正常的算法是  ^9 @5 N) W$ @. [' z6 x
庄家(Banker) 403,095,751,234,560 45.87% 1.06%
8 Y! x1 N3 ?4 m' y+ d4 |+ P闲家(Player) 392,220,492,728,832 44.63% 1.24% ! D6 ~. o$ B9 Q" C# |* p
和局(Tie) 83,552,962,932,288 9.51% 14.44% % U' s( c. K; {  I- v
问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已% G( O3 K) W* q+ A
问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为01 d: V5 s4 J  z9 B0 s2 _8 j5 J; ?

7 |3 I* w' P5 y' d我的的粗略算法是
( Q5 W" E# Z: y+ j& L每次下100元,下两次,从概率看庄闲各中一次,共下注200元,被抽水5元,收195元,若返水1%的话加2元,实收197元,赔率是0.985(197除以200)8 \8 m% S# o6 H2 I4 P" _' Y  C% U+ _
这是粗算法,其实按精算法看出庄的概率大些,所以不能平分,
8 h3 e$ {8 O. r5 t6 @/ |9 G: Y* Z5 c% t这样算的话返水达到2%都不算高,
, E  n, G! I3 G- m4 z但另一个朋友的算法不是这样,带有些精算,讨论中; L+ {9 r, A1 w' @
大家也帮帮下
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9 O% u8 K* y; V% v9 |6 `% t问题一:若永远不下“和局”,那么庄闲的优势如何计算,因为庄闲情况是存在的,只是不下注而已+ ^, ^# z8 H: O0 ]! Y; x( n! k3 x
问题二:极限返水问题,若永远不下“和局”的话返水达到多少时庄家优势为0- W/ w! L; j2 I- u. G, L. B

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: @' a' g* E- J' }4 i- N- X8副牌, 押玩家% N, F/ Y; Q2 ]* n$ T

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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.325 y) S% C. M- x) X2 G
第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为0
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第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32
& \1 {0 g% P6 B: F/ i' g第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...& f7 W& o7 p1 K8 h1 H
acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23

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+ O# v, V* g. Z' j2 A    说的比较靠普 楼主都没算输掉的反水
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回复 3# 艾欧里亚 9 G% y2 H! D+ I' n! A

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: O. `  ~8 y8 }+ f5 J% a" N    扫扫盲,现在网赌公司各项优惠加起来,玩家早就正收益了
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主题回复处广告图案-天策传媒
回复 4# acml1986
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' z1 e$ {% r- S: K6 Z& j1 C; ?:lol 正收益也难挡偶尔一次冲动啊
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回复 5# 艾欧里亚
5 F. E! P( A8 W& f- a3 r% T+ N( s2 g9 P2 X' \" W/ g1 h( V' v9 |+ y( \) D% d1 ~

. S6 }, D) K% N- m& a5 U, }5 {/ l) v    正收益也是零点几的微弱优势嘛,冲动带来的负收益是百分之几千几万了,哈哈
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回复 6# acml1986 * O' D4 a4 D3 [, j3 X3 K! x

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: Y+ C1 D1 w; u+ i8 w5 r    战胜DC看来是比登天还难了,不如家当全弄进去 梭哈两手 告老还乡得了:lol
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚 8 \! r0 p1 o: m  `

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: O6 ]+ I" ?$ Q; h8 j4 D    是啊,破了人性还要破数学概率,这两样破其中一项都难比登天,更何况还要同时破两项,拿家当梭哈两把赌报应绝对是玩百家乐最好的打法
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我的精算法是+ l, Y3 o% v) J/ v& C; @% m" v
第一步得出三者的概率:
4 J% z8 F. }6 {( {/ i7 m出庄0.458597
1 i  D$ A# f+ a: `! _7 }出闲0.446247+ w1 l6 B, D9 F; D5 U) {* U
出和0.0951566 G, D& v/ ?9 ~1 U2 h0 ~
第二步去掉和局,把庄闲换算成100%,庄闲丙者加起来100%5 c3 k9 q7 s& v- ~2 W
庄+闲=0.9048442 k4 ?* U4 {- T; R( b* [
换算成100%) y9 g9 h6 E  Z7 I* |
庄的概率是0.458597/0.904844=0.506824=50.6824%
+ j, X8 l% b- G  b7 T闲的概率是0.446247/0.904844=0.493176=49.3176%. D% e* X" d7 H$ O: w+ j
押庄家时的优势是+ ?' V1 F; u! G: J, q5 c
50.6824%*0.95(抽水金)=48.1482%
! C' t9 N- u" r- t" v- \闲-49.3176%
( C: R5 K# w$ D1 E两者相加玩家优势-1.1694%
; l7 ~7 r7 I! Q) R押庄家时的优势是-1.3648%
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回复 9# DC老兵 ' b/ ^$ c  k; c0 _1 y/ i6 I& Z

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    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.36
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回复  DC老兵 $ f/ a9 B0 l1 Y8 p# ~: {8 s
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    一般来说,就是全押庄,负收益是1.17,全押闲,负收益是1.364 ?+ F0 h9 E, f$ M7 Y2 O$ G% d
acml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 12:19
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    谢谢
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回复 11# DC老兵
1 I& ^" C( b7 Y7 d* a/ y2 g% X8 }5 a6 r/ }3 \
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    不用谢,还有撒概率方面的问题没,你现在应该看到,反水如果达到2,是多么大的正收益
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13#
楼主数学挺好啊
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谢谢楼主 的分享
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回复 7# 艾欧里亚 ! M; M" m$ m5 V9 `3 Q

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7 L! D! p: @3 w/ c% }   这个是完胜庄家的唯一办法 但是有个前提 就是梭哈赢了 这辈子都不再玩了~
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提示: 作者被禁止或删除 内容自动屏蔽
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17#
第一,若不算和局,开庄几率百分之50.68,开闲几率百分之49.32, T1 t# O6 ^. K; A( D5 t
第二,庄家反水给到1.265的时候,庄家优势为 ...
8 X  p5 E; i  q# Oacml1986 发表于 2013-5-22 11:23
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' ]$ m/ x( o' s! H/ u/ M2 I- s    说的太对了
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