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超深盘让步的赛事究竟该如何处理,往往都是彩民在单场胜平负竞猜或亚盘投资者经常遇到的难题,尤其是主胜指数在1.17的超低位以下,亚盘或让分盘市场往往最少要作出两球或以上的让步,要赢3球才能开出上盘,但要博下盘的一方遭遇一场大败的话又会相当没趣,现在就以过往比赛的两场经典必发成交例子,英超切尔西主场对斯托克城与及西甲巴塞隆拿主场对萨雷斯的赛事,作重点的个案探讨。
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这两场比赛的共通点就是当时切尔西与巴塞都在各自的联赛领跑但又未能确保冠军资格,同时都面对实力悬殊较弱的对手,结果切尔西与巴塞都最终赢球拿下3分,但在亚盘与及让球胜平负方面却是一赢一输的局面,我们现在就从必发指数网当中的必发成交回顾探讨一下当时的情况有什么蛛丝马迹,好让日后遇上这类赛事能够有更大的把握作出更准确的判断。
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先看切尔西主场迎战斯托克城一战,这场比赛在必发指数网显示临场录得接近5000万的天量成交;从成交走势中看到,备受96%资金热捧的切尔西主胜方向在早盘阶段并未见太多的主力买单介入,虽然早盘赔率一直压在1.16以下,但由于卖方防御筹码充裕导致买方未能进一步下行,至赛日傍晚后更见卖方大手抛售现象陆续出现,先是200万的卖单成交带动赔率上调,之后连续几注过百万的抛售进一步将赔率推到1.20,其后卖方依然有过千万的筹码防御,由此可见切尔西主胜有一定的阻力,最少未支持过早取得领先的优势。
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: }$ {9 k4 y/ U0 T3 p! _- N: _但是这分析明显就是忽略了相当重要的一点,就是忽视了切尔西主胜的挂买能量也是非常强悍,而且正直临场之际买方也有明显的反压现象,200万以上的买单比比皆是,所以主胜是非常明确的,只是能否大胜真是一个疑问,毕竟比赛若未能早开纪录其实也化解了卖方接下数千万筹码的风险,结果比赛24分钟才开纪录也如赛前所看,并未过早领先,不过最后7比0大胜相信正是主力挂买的原因所在。
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另一场巴塞隆拿主场迎战萨雷斯的比赛亦是一个相当经典的例子,截止临场前本场比赛在必发指数网上共录得2200多万成交;记得这场比赛在赛日前一晚已经有300多万资金进场,早盘成交走势中看到的是巴塞主胜低位并未见挂买有优势,20多万的挂牌资金相对于卖方数百万防御筹码无法可比,但过程中依然录得主力买单介入痕迹,只是赔率丝毫没变化,卖方仍坚守1.10以上的心理价位。
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. G+ `. u q& Z" \4 p5 q' ^( J2 u1 B至赛日当天成交逐渐放量,但买方多次冲击1.10的价位还是一成功,由此可见巴塞大胜受到一定质疑,另外还有一点可注意的是客胜高位也有较集中的买单介入,进球能力是不能否定,所以巴塞作出两球半深盘让步选择上盘是非常冒险的选择,毕竟我们已经看到客队有进球能力,结果这场比赛最终比分为3比1,也完全合符赛前的逻辑推理。
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& T" f8 O! x* j4 M2 n" I从以上两场深盘比赛成交的情况我们可以得出的结论是,无论低位抛售或买方介入,都要留意挂买能量,还要结合客胜高位及平局高位的成交状况来多方面去判断一场比赛的过程及结果,日后如遇到热门方要作出-2甚至更多的让步的时候,能否大胜开出上盘便可以多加利用必发成交对于这方面作出更深入的分析。+ S' m' O8 V& ~
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