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[打法交流]
百家乐高手玩家的内功心法:凯利注码法(凯利缆)(转载)
[复制链接]
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有许多会算优势的博友问我,如何控制震荡?要准备多少资金?要下多大的注?要多久能回报?1 x |) }3 w" y
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会问我这些问题,表示功力不到家!只会算EV确不会管理资金,只知其然却不知其所以然。9 S, O4 ~- Y! r- V1 U
8 L3 ]" _- X' ?5 [' k6 d0 q其实优势玩家的资金管理,不是经济学、不是统计学、更不是管理学、而是数学!!!% y' G9 t8 q, I8 S) W* f' c
4 i$ W9 q+ R/ A首先,我问一个很简单的问题,有什么注码法,能让你就算一直输,也永远不会破产?
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" a0 ~" G6 `' R请思考1分钟,再来看下面的答案。
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答案就是用比例下注,就永远不会破产!
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0 }$ |9 I) o0 L! e例如:我每次都下我总资金的10%,如果输了,我就下剩下的90%的10%,那么不管我输多少次,我始终都留下我上次下注之前的90%,永远都还会剩下钱。0 K4 `5 C$ O! v
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现在的问题就是,到底要下总资本的百分之几最好?
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) c- O8 K2 ?3 G我们先来看一个0和的游戏。/ E1 V0 Z0 k. L+ H9 @5 [1 {
: d$ M0 @! L5 [; F! d+ k% K玩2手,输一次赢一次,我用10%下注,不管先输(剩下90%,再下10%也就是90%*10%=9%)再赢(90%+9%),还是先赢(剩下110%,再下110%的10%=11%)再输(110%-11%),都是剩下99%,公式是(1+10%)*(1-10%)=99% 损失了1%的本金!) R1 i f1 p$ i. Z. a3 K: d6 f
& b- y, k6 P! n玩200手,输100次赢100次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^100 * (1-10%)^100=36.6% 损失了65.4%的本金!玩越多手,输的越多。8 V5 \, n) I& u& U7 r1 [( J! w6 D
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这个实验说明,使用永远不会破产的注码,虽然永远也输不完,但是就算玩一个不输不赢的游戏,也会一直越输越多。
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6 b* I/ h. p" r" f W! C2 C1 \接下来,大家都知道我们玩一个+EV的游戏,赢的会比输的多,+1%的游戏,就是200手里面赢101手输99手的意思,那么如果用我们永远不会破产的注码来打,会不会赚钱呢?
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! `, j( S' X/ V& d- N m玩200手,输99次赢101次,用10%下注,(1+10%)^101 * (1-10%)^99=44.7373% 比0和的好点,但是依然不会赢。3 |' O6 D: K+ V/ Z8 P+ }. e: @
9 G9 W$ H% p& Z: L1 }/ I: ]- d8 P再来看看如果下5%,(1+5%)^101 * (1-5%)^99=86.051% 比下10%好多了。3 p& U: d+ M/ V3 d Y8 ]3 B$ Z& t
X/ _# Y1 }' O9 J如果下1%呢?(1+1%)^101 * (1-1%)^99=101.005% 终于发现能永远不会破产又赚钱的地方了。# ]# l s$ p O6 m1 D
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但是这真的是最好的吗?我帮大家节省时间,我直接把下注的比例跟获利结果,用表格的形式拉出来。
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下注比例 本金结果
+ f% p* {0 e4 I( ^' m
M3 \1 J( ~* H( b0.1% 1.001902* P5 @3 n# p6 |4 m' s2 `9 O
: z. v* s3 c) O+ I L/ y
0.2% 1.003606
% X& B6 }! q( D) Y* W, V6 @- _" X% A& i: I
0.3% 1.005113
0 u: A9 i$ r( W2 e# H: A
0 c4 }% Q( q8 o3 ]' Z0.4% 1.006421
3 h1 S6 p6 ?+ N5 K4 }7 k: j" n- q0 a9 E& W1 o5 w3 |: r. f% S$ r
0.5% 1.007528
6 T% z( Y$ D9 @
7 k* C2 M3 q- Q: S' m0.6% 1.008435" ]# h, y( b" \6 N; c! F1 V
6 A8 S0 N$ z1 ^6 z0 g0.7% 1.0091426 j8 z$ z: v4 ]- }, M8 c6 R2 Y, N. a) ~
$ L9 C: D: `# c+ L( h4 p9 ]2 G- {
0.8% 1.009646( j! Z4 f" D9 y' S0 d$ n
3 B# b8 r+ a; x9 X
0.9% 1.009949
- Y; u" P# x- m
& h" M& {2 N1 U8 N; z) O: s1.0% 1.010051 N" {+ ]* f" U2 N: D
j7 `* N+ |, p' E: E
1.1% 1.009949
@5 k( v- O$ k
" { r7 {$ _; B& S' C- }1.2% 1.009646
0 P9 U6 V2 l2 G1 ~* c2 K4 c& a3 T% e3 V
1.3% 1.009142
7 C! ^' R8 P9 g1 h. c( W& e, L3 U! E
1.4% 1.008435* w) t' s1 L/ L/ X" A
0 j( Y2 x1 h4 o! w+ n0 Y1 D1.5% 1.007528/ y, l# G. a, R; h# j" @
% m' ^4 T. k) q- n5 j; N1.6% 1.00642
) q: V3 @! [( P& y, S
0 z) S. R0 [& G3 S1.7% 1.0051128 z7 @7 b" \+ O" v
+ y0 A8 \7 j: _1.8% 1.003605
" J! S- \, t! c& ^+ y2 G0 d4 y/ t2 k" a3 ^( R: w
1.9% 1.0019
$ R# q( b7 z; } T/ t, e0 S h c( x8 r7 R! A
2.0% 0.999997
5 o5 s' s. _' Q, Y# S
- L+ Z& x& i C/ q2.1% 0.997899
% O5 ^5 Y; P+ \ S( o1 e9 J" N, _, f1 h) I0 {; t4 T
2.2% 0.995605
6 R1 t6 i: w# i+ I: @: B$ A+ S% Q& R9 ~/ p6 u( v8 L6 X
2.3% 0.993118
2 a8 u1 ?2 x+ i8 W+ a) A' ~0 ?' u6 w, n
2.4% 0.990439
3 A# a3 [$ ?4 B' c( A0 ?' s* q. j
2 l: y( ^% n& |2.5% 0.987569
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$ |+ h& ?( ]$ @2.6% 0.98451( \- z- q2 n' w% K' n9 s8 K+ _! Q9 B" V
- m, c J+ h, m+ I1 M5 ]
2.7% 0.981264
& e3 R% [" ` E% x- o1 [2 A
: h) e5 W1 J2 L8 ^5 G2.8% 0.977833; v/ A! I6 p0 k3 ]4 O
/ ~2 W) x8 w0 Q% _! p1 [, ~
2.9% 0.974219
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- p: O3 R* n5 c0 q3 n3 }4 s3.0% 0.970424
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从上表可以得到一些结论:: r/ n4 ?+ | r7 F' F0 J" o1 A7 H
2 F5 b& _6 N0 G1 [- p1 }2 w1. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,下注在0%以上2%以下,才会有获利9 ?& h; Z; P3 z/ _" c, q8 Y" z
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2. 面对赢101次输99次EV+1%的游戏来说,注码在1%的时候,得到的获利是最高的,下的越小赚的越少,下的越大也赚的越少!( @5 p8 |9 K* _- `
7 i' g; R$ a; z) q, u V9 _3. 每一次下注之后都要精准的计算剩下的资金,严格按照比例下注,过多过少只要不够准确,都会降低收益,名副其实的刀尖上的舞蹈7 ~( o+ c# I2 _6 `2 n( z, Z
& a- l* r$ G% U$ j5 X凯利这个人,其实只是按照这个原理去推演,发现EV+1%的时候要下本金的1%、EV+2%的时候要下本金的2%...% c/ F! {# H, H1 E( \0 C+ L* X
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然而凯利所计算的只是一赔一的条件,其实根据不同赌戏的赔率不同,其实不尽然都是跟EV相同的,但是如果各位自己制作一个简单的excel表,那么自己也可以拉的出来最适合的注码比例。, b/ j# o/ S, ]' L) D- Z
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以上,希望我能对不懂下注策略的初学优势的博友玩家有所帮助。
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