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[虚拟币交流]
比特币的市场平衡受到干扰——你会在哪里找到比特币的底部?(转)
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更大的加密货币市场正在经历衰退比特币(BTC)引领这一下降趋势。虽然它在9月底创下6.6万美元的新高,但截至发稿时,其价值略高于6万美元。
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. a4 P7 W! _# p* Z" ]根据Hyblock Capital的数据,比特币的市场平衡有些不稳定。因此,BTC可能会再次调整,特别是在2024年最后一个季度的早期阶段。
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这种极端的投资者行为提供了对潜在市场转折点的洞察。当存在过多的多头或空头头寸时,这意味着市场平衡受到干扰。7 `2 J: E; @3 {) ^: _* `
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了解市场平衡至关重要,因为过多的多头或空头头寸往往预示着潜在的修正或趋势逆转。% |0 v# r* O2 k8 Z7 W
5 G* n1 u& W4 a: _许多交易员曾预计会出现看涨趋势,但目前的动态正在将市场情绪转向另一个方向。
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比特币短期持有者供应
4 N: b# X, a9 F0 Q如果短期投资者减少80000 BTC的供应,这可能会为新的看涨趋势铺平道路。这一减少将有助于稳定市场,使比特币更容易重新站稳脚跟。! U- {* E# V2 a. `. z2 M- I
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最近几周,大量供应涌入交易所,导致比特币价格面临下行压力。在撰写本文时,比特币的活动低于365天SMA,强化了看跌前景。
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) Q D7 A9 w6 N; Y. J6 o' z' M随着供应增加而需求减少,BTC的价格可能会继续下跌。这意味着修正可能即将到来。- d. [- O. \: w7 w7 j5 B- i, {
9 [! X- I& y1 `/ u. p) o$ H7 k对活跃加密货币的兴趣# d) P& u2 z0 M. c |. D. ?3 O
与此同时,自2021年底以来,活跃的加密货币数量停滞不前。这种缺乏增长可能是对启动新项目兴趣降低的迹象。) @! t) X3 ~4 D3 \; B4 w( R5 N f& g
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有几个因素可能导致这一趋势,包括市场疲软和监管压力。这种情况进一步表明,比特币可能很快就会在图表上出现回调。$ C. e( z/ U1 ~; q
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影响价格的全球紧张局势+ @1 |: }8 C8 i
当前的地缘ZZ紧张局势,特别是伊朗和以色列之间的冲突,也在影响加密货币的价格。事实上,历史数据显示,在现实世界的冲突中,比特币价格往往会出现最初的下跌,然后是复苏。
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( |0 q# a+ m9 x8 M8 ]3 S例如,2023年10月,比特币在前四天下跌了5%。然而,在接下来的九天里,它反弹了12%。
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同样,在2022年2月的乌克兰-俄罗斯冲突期间,BTC在第一天下跌了10%,但在随后的六天内飙升了27%。% L5 e) d6 J; ~. F3 Q" j6 b
$ [& n+ r; `) p# B1 a鉴于这些模式,比特币似乎正在经历一次调整,然后在上一季度可能出现反弹。然而,无痕鲸鱼能否帮助BTC目前保持在6万美元以上的水平?
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- v1 w1 Y8 s# q! Q& [BTC的鲸鱼活动( i/ |# b" b) i p% _4 X
尽管当前市场波动,但新旧鲸鱼仍然不受影响。期货市场的走势是更广泛战略的一部分,在这个战略中,真正的市场变化是通过现货交易和场外交易(OTC)市场发生的,正如Ki Young-Ju所说注意在X上。
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: M6 W1 D& k a3 U: _6 ~( \7 J$ U流程比特币进入托管钱包意味着永久持有人正在增加他们的股份。通过这样做,他们支持比特币的长期看涨前景。8 `! q, _( r& p
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事实上,CryptoQuant的数据显示,老鲸鱼的回报微乎其微,而新鲸鱼则在积极积累比特币。
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这可能有助于BTC保持在6万美元以上。值得注意的是,这种偏见受到加密货币市场不可预测性的影响。+ F" h w" G) l5 O1 i4 J: [
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