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最新报告分析：比特币在通胀和地缘ZZ风险中展现储备资产潜力（转）
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比特币政策研究所最近的一份报告建议，各国央行应将比特币视为应对经济和ZZ不确定性的对冲工具。
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该论文名为《将比特币作为储备资产的案例》，论述了比特币可以作为储备资产来抵御通胀、地缘紧张、资本管制、主权违约、银行危机和国际制裁。
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作者是经济学家马修·费兰蒂（Matthew Ferranti），他强调比特币与传统金融资产的相关性有限，称其为“有效的投资组合多元化工具”。 : K+ Q3 s8 ?* B& v
他声称，这种明显的缺乏相关性赋予了比特币作为储备资产的独特价值，特别是对于那些希望减少对美元依赖的国家。
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比特币的去中心化特性使其对各国具有吸引力此外，比特币的去中心化特性和缺乏对手风险，使其对面临金融制裁风险的国家（如委内瑞拉和俄罗斯）具有吸引力。费兰蒂将这些国家形容为经历了一种“选择性违约”。 / ~8 q! b! \" x+ s8 N
尽管承认比特币并不适合所有央行，费兰蒂指出其作为价值储存的潜力，将其比作黄金，因为它能够抵御货币贬值。 3 F6 Q% r+ b0 K: R# X* m
这种观点与一些美国政策制定者对比特币作为战略资产日益增长的兴趣相一致。
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在特朗普前总统于田纳西州纳什维尔举办的比特币2024大会上发表演讲后，关于美国比特币战略储备的呼声越来越高。
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作为回应，怀俄明州参议员辛西娅·卢米斯（Cynthia Lummis）提出了比特币战略储备法案，旨在逐步为美国财政部收购5%的比特币总供应量。
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特朗普在最近接受福克斯新闻采访时，甚至提出利用比特币来减少国债的想法，强调了这一固定供应资产对抗通胀的潜力。
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比特币支持者及MicroStrategy首席执行官迈克尔·塞勒（Michael Saylor）将这一战略储备倡议比作路易斯安那购地，称其为一个关键的经济机会。
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然而，包括卡尔达诺创始人查尔斯·霍斯金森在内的一些人则警告，国家比特币储备可能使ZF对比特币网络施加影响，从而影响其去中心化特性。 6 m# q) ]" ^( l2 e: K7 i. O
美联储论文倡导对比特币征税或禁止这篇新论文是在明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行的一份研究论文发布后不久引发的，该论文对比特币对ZF财政政策的影响表示担忧，认为可能需要对这种加密货币征税或禁止，以帮助ZF管理财政赤字。
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该论文指出，比特币使得维持永久性ZF赤字的努力变得复杂，尤其是在依赖名义债务的经济中。 4 m( S; g) d- E: a0 L' s
根据明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行的说法，比特币造成了所谓的“平衡预算陷阱”，迫使ZF必须平衡预算。 " B* Q3 R" b% `- Y# p/ w
同样，本月早些时候，欧洲中央银行（ECB）也呼吁对比特币进行监管或禁止，理由是担忧财富重新分配的问题。
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ECB高级管理顾问于尔根·沙夫（Jürgen Schaaf）重申了这一观点，倡导实施政策以遏制比特币的增长。 9 ?# ]3 U' n( ?3 i4 k
对ECB立场的批评者认为，该论文未能解决货币通货膨胀的更广泛背景。
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例如，2023-2024年英国公共部门债务达到了接近98%的GDP，创下自1960年代以来的最高水平。 - l1 i0 ^/ }% n3 [- l( A
在美国，国家债务已经飙升至35万亿美元，这部分是由于自2020年以来M2货币供应量增加了41%。 |
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