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[体育菠菜心得方法] 再论赔率统计 --新手胡说八道
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1#
以威廉为标准，只统计 英超，西甲，意甲
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& G6 l# E( @# b# D2 \" p4 w+ Y只跟踪一个联赛" E8 I5 P: B6 i4 ~$ n' ^
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全塞季  分别买 主胜，  平，   负赔
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/ p( F) I0 u3 d& V+ x三条线  ，三年统计结果  全部亏水钱，积少成多也不少啊 ，最后收益差别不大，
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偶尔年份  平或 负赔会高一点。
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/ K9 h- S8 c& `/ C0 N! l) y方法：  全程跟踪一个联赛，一个塞季， 只买一边， 主胜 或负赔（平局出现相对概率要少）  \, j9 }8 \( M- {' [8 c9 V* y

8 i; |( Q, Y8 t) U然后通过基本面或盘赔特征，排除一部分球赛， 最后你买的那边胜率就会增高， 只需要增高一点，
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/ [0 ~" {# K% s4 q) f就可以做到 一边持平或赚水钱，  然后就是不断累积经验，多排除一些球赛，多赚一点水钱- l7 ~5 n+ ]. d3 f% ^* y

6 Z! l4 j% N. D) h3 d当经验积累到一定程度， 足球就成了一种长期投资 项目
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亚盘没有统计，想当然，  低水胜出概率高点，  让盘方胜出概率高点，只有两个方向容易判断，! ]3 V8 {2 A$ V, H* H5 y/ ^
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而且亚盘返还率要高一点， 选低水+让球方，一个联赛一个赛季全程跟踪，开始肯定输水钱，
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& F2 }+ L4 D$ }但是只要累计经验去排除一些明显打不出来的球赛就可以了，就可以把水钱赚回来。7 r/ ~" P! D" N) P, I/ _
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: |1 a. E* `: a8 g; E理论依据： 只买一边 ，一定不会让你亏多少，因为大联赛大庄都是平衡的，一个联赛一个赛季一定平衡。
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排除比选择要容易积累经验， 而且学习排除法 那些不可能出现  ，比那些可能出现 要容易判断

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2#
以上的方法 是不可能赚多少钱的，
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但是每个赛季 5-10%， 是可以做到的，& r7 {6 t5 ^9 g/ `( M

. e9 G/ c( N- @: ~这比买国债存银行合算。, }: @3 m1 @: p3 u  z2 }; e: K6 [
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在DC赚大钱的人，都是用高风险去博高收益，风险大利润才高，
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几次发现十几倍的负赔，就是不敢去，买了平，这就是人性。' M) r6 {. B5 m5 w

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常胜的人收益一定不会高到那里去。
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放弃一夜暴富，放弃神奇的方法， 放弃高的胜率，$ i* w/ j1 I9 N: {

$ ~* @1 h( j8 v$ L" M就是回避了大的亏损，
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  B/ V9 }( G2 }8 L! ^大亏，小亏，小赢，大赢，  DC就这四种结果，
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回避了大亏，用经验避免小亏，就只剩下 赢了。

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顶起再慢慢看

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