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[虚拟币交流]
分析师：比特币价格可能在2022年跌至1.4万美元，但现在“买入是最好的选择”
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研究称，比特币今年将面临“周期底部”，可能会从目前的水平下跌超过50%。
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在6月1日的一篇推特帖子中，链上分析平台CryptoQuant的撰稿人Venturefounder预测，2022年是比特币“投降”的一年。
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6 ~7 k! P5 g6 j) F: e9 u% e比特币现在拥有“有史以来最好的3年投资回报率”# Z/ S# D6 U4 }2 r* D, g* k
Venturefounder写道，根据比特币减半周期的历史模式，今年应该是当前四年周期中的熊市害群之马。% V( ~% ~+ m, S' H& x1 }# u
5 r& J. A, Q m' s, N( z就像2018年和它的熊市一样，BTC/USD应该会在2022年的某个时候找到自己的宏观底部，如果计算以前从历史高点的跌幅，这可能在14000美元到21000美元之间。
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“距离比特币下一次减半还有670天，与过去的周期相比，我们按时看到了比特币的表现，”一条推文解释道： i, ]9 K7 _0 a% d0 t% x4 p
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“在接下来的670天里，BTC将在接下来的6个月里投降，并触及周期底部(14-21k美元)，然后在2023年的大部分时间里达到2.8 -40k美元，并在下一次减半之前再次达到~40k美元。”
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2 G; r9 O5 h; A- Z9 ~这样的预测虽然不是什么好消息，但也不是没有先例的。在2018年12月触及3100美元后，比特币在7个月后设法回到13800美元，然后再次逆转下行，在2020年3月的低点3600美元见底。
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u. o- U3 J7 N8 h7 q# A( v即使是2019年的最高价格也不足以打破2017年12月创下的历史最高纪录——20000美元。
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4 u/ P0 k: m( k0 UVenturefounder认为，这一水平可能再次成为现货价格图表的一个特征。尽管如此，那些愿意乘势投资的人(即便是现在)还是会站在历史正确的一边。
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“换句话说，从现在到未来6-12个月，购买比特币是最好的选择。这可能是有史以来最好的3年投资回报率，”他补充道：
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“我们可能没有在周期底部，但我们在BTC周期底部的范围内。这是你在把握市场周期时能做的最好的事情。”1 ?" w; D' _# u6 B/ w
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底部预测不断出现- g& {' Z1 `. j. N0 z& ^1 m4 r
与此同时，其他人已经估计可能的底部范围在14000美元或附近。" e2 n1 v# V6 V
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这一价格将比目前的历史高点69000美元下跌约80%。
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8 ^8 V" `' n: i* E. k! z3 F7 h1 Y链上分析公司Glassnode的数据显示，目前31000美元左右的价格相对来说是一个较小的降幅。% [9 z" g& z3 B3 Y. q# g, X. T
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4 X/ @) J$ a- Y6 @7 [& kBTC/USD从历史高点回落 来源：Glassnode. W, Y6 N, N }* j
- T0 N1 l( J; w% \上月，同行分析师Rekt Capital估计，一旦BTC/USD跌破200周移动平均线，其潜在目标价为15500美元。
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, y( |& A7 K; i7 w2 u卖家要将市场推低到如此之低可能会遇到困难。持有最多比特币的上市公司MicroStrategy承诺，只要比特币价格接近20000美元大关，它就买入。1 j7 }& b. G% J
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交易巨头BitMEX前首席执行官Arthur Hayes也证实，他对20000美元的比特币感兴趣。1 x2 w; x: }( b/ z7 H$ P( D! r
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