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小分3种情况:0 I6 B% J3 f& ]
( V1 v& _0 }+ l6 T/ ]0 q& O1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌。$ h# {/ A; ], ?' w, P8 L
1 l9 z( ~: l0 h
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点。
) r0 V- |' i% M. J
0 h& y' H+ S9 j( n3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点。# t% h# j9 h" n1 _5 t8 q
9 E" P* K2 \" R3 j6 K# n. ?
2张牌8或9点的情况有:
# M& k# K" I0 G3 }2 m Q
9 p2 t. H# ~4 ]1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+4,4+5,8+10,9+9,9+10 C( q @/ ?. c: u4 m
d0 J% }5 D9 ?0 D9 P1+7,1+8,2+6,2+7,3+5,3+6,4+5的概率计算方法都是:32/416*32/4154 c4 g- P) G+ h4 L a
; x) h9 F9 \' y0 B: ?
4+4,9+9的概率计算方法都是:32/416*31/4157 G+ L8 m T4 T
; |; d+ q% l0 I$ q9 X
8+10,9+10的概率计算方法都是:32/416*128/415
7 e* \! f" e) m k# b6 N7 v" S% L: u+ Y1 G% D. D1 V, M4 z5 g
由此,我们可以计算出,8副牌2张牌出现8或9点的概率为:0.189434662。) H# m3 {& R8 D! y
! H4 J. `1 `+ _+ [" q通过同样的计算方法,6或7点的概率与8或9点的概率一样。
* y# G" C* o6 d4 V) d: k0 i; E9 n6 M/ u; i; K; _
那么我们可以得出
p- y: X4 ], u2 p1 O9 [4 ^4 C; h$ y) m& n6 u
1.闲2张牌8或9点,庄任意牌的概率=0.189434662+ G# ?, [& k: U1 V: ^9 n
7 u" L3 D. N5 S) e5 @1 C9 c7 z
2.庄2张牌8或9点,闲非8、9点的概率=0.189434662*(1-0.189434662)=0.153549171
6 O4 R; D, F7 H& {0 o7 ]' k% k. @3 I5 [
3.闲2张牌6或7点and庄2张牌6或7点=0.189434662*0.189434662=0.035885491) w) \2 D( f2 E" S# p" f
# B" A4 L9 P+ P; W所以最后得出初始状态下,小的概率=0.189434662+0.153549171+0.035885491=0.3788693233 T9 d" {( S- N9 v! ], E& R; E. ]
1 F0 ~' {/ u/ o* U
百家乐非小即大,所以大的概率=1-0.378869323=0.621130677& G4 P1 k) m# o" W( P L
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方法最后一段话觉得是有道理的,但是在我面前就难以实现,毕竟运气太差了。 |
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