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[体育菠菜心得方法]
《足球财富》-第4部分 联赛盘路-第1章 英超联赛盘路特点和投注策略-[第六节]
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第六节 一球/球半初盘- m! U1 _+ m6 p* ^
2 f. r5 T4 D+ v1 k
初盘高水,豪门要防冷
& a; Z* R) B q$ ^2 R+ G 5 j. ~; `1 a( v( O9 e: D; n
: `/ M- M2 b& K+ d" ~3 q 09-10赛季半程主队一球/球半盘成绩统计:
5 X- r7 {. X2 b 英超主队
. y" V l+ M& ^5 R3 l) y% l. | 胜:11场 79%+ F; F, b# w0 F! f
平:2场 14%/ i: J) w! Z" y. d- ?4 x
负:1场 7%
2 l4 Y0 b! s+ u3 a/ V: j
0 ?! f+ Q( ], B z! E 通过新赛季半程统计发现,两个赛季中一球/球半盘下主队表现都较理想,仅出现1次输球,但是也发现,在09-10赛季较于上个赛季0输球记录本赛季防冷出0的可能不可忽略。先以09-10赛季的盘口水位统计为例,开始分析英超主队一球/球半盘路。- m$ q0 f x" r$ f* `6 L' |0 b1 M
- Q# W% `6 u: h* m" _ 一、初盘阶段, y, k6 z: _* W4 j! p
3 P- m6 [8 z [% {; ~ 具体到水位如下:
T9 A1 `3 R2 i& V# N8 N4 j" l% n 初盘阶段低水:英超主队3胜! F+ Z" P) y! E
初盘阶段中水:英超主队3胜2平
6 l+ l$ C. Y- Z0 s 初盘阶段高水:英超主队5胜1平8 {% f3 L6 n6 R( [7 H
2 H" T8 V3 u Y* s4 y5 y) } 分析:上赛季初盘阶段低水的赛次只有1场,结果是主队取胜。而在09-10赛季初盘阶段0.82-0.86上盘低水水位出现3次,主队盘路2赢1输半。分别是:' d" x$ j( ?2 r8 ?
9 b U/ z9 l! m0 B) x2 p& F( S 维拉3-0朴茨茅斯 0.86一球/球半1.00( B& L- | Y* a6 x1 @9 H
热刺2-1伯明翰 0.82一球/球半1.02
h" ~) ?, J, P" c: [" S7 J 热刺5-0伯恩利 0.86一球/球半1.00! I0 @$ G. E1 e3 N, ]
6 s+ `3 l9 t4 b( F3 A3 P 初盘阶段中水,主要发生在0.92中水至0.98中高水区间,英超主队3胜2平、主队盘路为2赢3输,成绩并不理想。其中打平的水位发生在初盘0.92/0.94、0.98/0.88,可以发现两类水位从半/一初盘开始对平局的支持次数较为频繁,需要引起关注。总体来看该初盘水位对足彩来说思路比较清晰,侧重点还是在于防冷平,足彩31格局较明朗。
' B2 e9 G! c) V' v8 [ 初盘阶段高水,英超主队5胜1负,只出现了1次客胜即曼联主场被维拉爆冷。水位表现即:曼联0-1维拉(1.04 一球/球半0.82)。其它赢球比赛中1.00/0.86水位出现2次,主队均都赢球赢盘。即:热刺2-0西汉姆、曼城4-1布莱克本。结合总体成绩分析,该盘口下足彩主胜做胆的价值价高。$ ~: ?' l1 N' G9 }3 T% d+ X
6 w" }7 Z4 G" c& l
二、临场阶段0 v' K2 P% K6 g5 \' X+ o
! n' p! a& z# P3 N
具体到盘口如下:
% Q& x, [' M$ X1 D: K0 P% P3 z% } 临场阶段升盘: 英超主队1胜
* a! `+ Z Q6 F" w 临场阶段降盘: 英超主队4胜1平: X6 s0 G( _5 L" d7 d; ?( Q
分析:临场阶段升盘的比赛目前只出现了1场,即热刺5-0大炒伯恩利的比赛。盘口水位即:
. J' y+ N: A! I2 w& q 5 X- t; n- x. _6 U! \+ [
热刺VS伯恩利
8 R' [8 t$ P L% k' Y' w" k 初盘:0.86一球/球半1.00
& Q2 h# K5 z) ~: q" Y; C 终盘:0.77球半1.09
0 j8 B6 w+ G! E# w# O8 L& K
, D% p! d' ~% j0 k0 v, m 临场阶段出现降盘在一球/球半盘中出现次数较多。英超主队表现较为理想,取得了4胜1平的战绩,盘路为3赢1走1输。其中从中水降盘出现1次切主队被客队逼平,即爱华顿1-1狼队的比赛。在初盘水位0.98一球/球半0.88,临场水位0.80一球1.06区间内发生。而从高水降盘出现了4场主队取得全胜。从足彩细分角度分析,一球/球半出现降盘总体上是主队做胆格局,而对中水降盘的盘口类型应对冷平做出防范,足彩走31即可。
) l! x# ]1 U. {8 k; W$ q! Y 1 Q @; e% a4 k. K) [
三、球队表现
- }0 n: N" G( V: q0 a, G
' F- g. A. H0 P# t! K0 m* Q3 Z 在英超09-10赛季主让一球/球半初盘下,表现最好的球队当属曼城和热刺,在该盘口下都取得了胜利,这两支球队的一球/球半盘足彩做胆值得信任。在该盘口下豪门球队都有过输球或者被对手逼平的记录,足彩注意防冷平或爆大冷出0的可能。在该盘口下很少平局的球队是利物浦、曼联,它们都是非胜即败,足彩多选30为主。打成平局可能较大的是维拉和阿森纳,在主场被对手逼平的可能不小,足彩注意防平出1。
5 a) m" \; b' p, o* e" E2 j
' x/ n6 p3 C4 ] p+ Q 四、投注要点) W& I* Z* V9 C% R2 Q9 M+ e7 F5 l
$ k+ o2 L2 s- H/ l- ~7 U. R
要点1:初盘低水,主胜的保证; J2 z$ E8 U$ {9 N# `! v
要点2:初盘中水,重点防平1 `5 L& W, `0 r
要点3:初盘高水,主胜可期,但要注意豪门在此盘下被爆冷可能3 k( e' ~, I* J( b" D. V
要点4:中水临场降盘,足彩双选31
# |" }: o$ H) X! C 要点5:红魔、红军此盘下打平概率较低
. M/ A# @ L1 P% H. c& U! h% S+ V 要点6:曼城、热刺赢盘多,足彩做胆可信任9 x: L6 N8 u7 S3 S
要点7:阿森纳、维拉的平局不可忽视
& u% t E: ]+ @4 s/ Z9 m& m % ^6 G- h Y$ A6 F
对英超一球/球半初盘临场降盘的一些看法
+ i4 l+ n" m* [9 i 对于多数玩家来说,一球/球半降盘是比较难琢磨的盘口。如变换角度理解,深盘降盘一方- v E- B Q9 c
面是打击玩家对上盘信心而阻击盘口,另一方面则是庄家吸引筹码的表现。但是通过英超本赛季的几场此类盘路的结果,可以看发现出现降盘的上盘球队多数都能赢球赢盘。关于此类盘路在前面章节有过具体讲述,这里只拿个别实例简单说明。曼城2-0斯托克城,就是主队初盘让一球/球半1.06临场向一球0.84低水降盘的案例,简单解析就是曼城主场三连胜、斯托克主客场均都萎靡,曼城毫无降盘的任何支持题材,在此只能解释为本盘属于降低上盘赔付的反诱手法。(具体盘路分析在本书第二部分方法篇中有详述)综合一球/球半临场降盘的总体表现,足彩将31作为主流较为稳健。% v. Y9 Q+ E( {6 l
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