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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。/ N/ }3 `. ~! g% P+ f0 q2 P
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。
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: @7 w" h0 U* k0 p% u自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。- I/ y# ^0 ]5 M* M- q* {
9 V3 e: V' d; Y. ]& j( e( O
阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。, K) d1 U0 w2 Y
! Y2 F4 ~' d# t7 h. j
2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。
) H+ L/ r! Z8 @2 B& \
# j3 ~0 [5 J2 ]/ L* U2 t j7 h那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
$ W0 k9 P1 z) s, g+ ?+ m
8 B- {1 p% F3 t观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
q: r2 @; @" p: f9 I/ {/ c分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。+ [, w" A2 |$ T7 a: f
* X$ {+ |$ X& d& v; {- R上周降至1300 BTC。
, Y& V& E6 ?8 R0 n4 ?- R k; b f' j" ?" o; F& R& A
从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。- \6 B6 C7 \* o7 u
8 e" `$ w1 [$ N' Y& z* D
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。- a6 \8 j( d7 L+ g+ x% b# t9 m$ n
$ H; J! }1 Q& g& [0 O% o4 q
鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
h, M, j- S5 M3 t: M- w! Q+ [0 g/ a. Q }5 ~
Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。
9 ]4 i' Z/ Z1 u" O$ d0 M; _$ v! R: w
尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。9 D! C% L3 }' h, E* o- r4 w
5 ?+ O R& |% k, ?& R9 Q7 ?比特币会突破其区间吗?7 Q4 l" |& i9 n
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
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) L4 O) X+ p+ I5 K* c3 f4 d2 c根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。9 g4 }7 l5 U- |! x
+ @6 K+ H5 [. K; J R! k因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。
' o0 E9 }2 {( Y4 P7 F% o
, v8 x; y6 M8 e w/ ~2 s" b$ {; ?技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。3 {3 r2 F& o7 y: x4 v
7 v" H! s# d# a) j; ~& n* Z位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
- |4 ^8 c4 O5 _ ~$ x/ Z+ F然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。; o+ z5 c: ^( q; \
5 X! v1 j3 T5 x- m) l3 C/ Y, ?
根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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当前离线
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