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当前离线
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1. 宏观因素影响市场走势4 W) E6 ?' q4 i7 v
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过去一周市场涨跌主要受宏观经济数据影响,包括美国未来的降息预期、上周的非农数据和失业率,以及本周即将公布的PPI与CPI数据。
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+ ], P. Z' Y8 Y; h+ x; r! yPPI助推反弹:昨晚公布的PPI数据低于市场预期,被认为是近期少见的利好消息。PPI同比上涨3.3%(预期3.5%),核心PPI同比上涨3.5%(预期3.8%),这让市场信心得到了一定恢复。; N( L, Q* B8 Z, e
3 X! B" ?+ ^" A. R. CCPI才是关键:今晚的CPI数据更为重要,市场预期CPI同比为2.9%(前值2.7%),核心CPI预期为3.3%。如果数据能保持在预期或持平的水平,大饼(比特币)可能重回10万美元上方,并延续市场的炒作行情。! R/ m/ ]# S7 T4 `# v: W2 F
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2. 比特币市场现状与未来预期
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1 j" ~7 d7 I0 u$ }, x, w+ c当前持仓成本:
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机构的平均持仓成本在8.1万美元左右;
) [# |! j7 C: m- m+ _$ T# z8 l1 t4 X4 y" i
微策略因早期进场,平均成本约为6.2万美元;
$ s+ Z1 ?1 P9 {& T# B# {$ I6 G% Z% d5 V( j5 N/ \
ETF持仓成本约在7万美元上下。3 T( [6 s; X) Y
+ N4 ]8 H! V; c
比特币价值回归:
: ^4 r y- ?- E& Z9 V! ~
) i( h9 [ ?& |# e市场大部分散户的低价筹码已经交割完毕,当前持币主力成本价在6-8万美元区间。
8 ^, b- Z( X7 R& M6 y5 g. r. b0 I' n3 I, a* \. [# m
随着更多公司和国家效仿萨尔瓦多将比特币纳入战略储备,比特币的流通将越来越少,机构预测其价格有望达到15万甚至20万美元。3 d6 P+ H4 c7 y
% g1 u& l. t, p加密资产的国家效应:萨尔瓦多因比特币政策而成为中美洲金融科技中心,吸引了像Tether这样的大型加密公司入驻。
4 w" K- a/ T0 k7 B9 ~
+ d( }- B' x" A5 f* h' V3. 市场热点与反弹情况
$ Q& I1 s2 M5 b- O0 J1 s
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$ ]+ u* a, z7 k/ A6 x: [4 L0 _虽然受到大量抛售的质疑,但以太坊价格总体稳定,汇率回升至0.033。* g" X9 @3 Y' q1 o* c* D T
+ Z* D, j: N; s4 w# O2 D
机构普遍认为以太坊本轮高点或达到1万美元。
l7 d& Q: @/ n' j7 F& Z2 i
5 `9 y7 _9 @7 v* ]6 _( n0 X* }BTC:: s s1 e9 E* S& _4 l
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尽管ETF持续外流且贝莱德带头抛售,比特币依然维持强势。
7 s6 X* i4 I! t+ J
' s6 G; k- K) }如果今晚CPI数据利好,突破10万美元可能性极大。! Z E. K4 V' q4 l" F
, V; H2 a" @: N0 xSOL与XRP:
) L0 m0 |6 y! V5 t0 l4 q) }) `5 d
SOL走势强劲,被认为是AI生态的主导者。摩根大通预计SOL与XRP的ETF即将推出,或吸引150亿美元资金入场。
( t+ h, h+ w( r; v' O- f
$ |. u7 U4 U4 \8 m0 CXRP走势超强,多次占据韩所榜首,有市场声音预测其价格达到10美元、市值超越以太坊。3 Z' c4 [, I6 |, e6 ^6 o: V
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其他热点项目:9 q/ C, F& e- C+ Z
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涉及ETF或政策的项目如$hbar、$algo、$ada等走势同样强劲。
7 e$ I) X/ C$ z+ ^- ~% w0 `
# W) [3 Q6 F+ v e山寨市场近期普遍上涨,市场预计Q1可能迎来牛市爆发。" S8 [" U- t; S% M* y4 f
! @/ b1 p8 S8 q' }6 Z' _ p4. AI赛道与新兴项目+ V0 Y9 N x; Z9 i& J
, i6 b" Y/ P2 |2 |% g
AI领域表现突出,板块总市值达160亿美元,近期涨幅明显。
3 c5 a, E; Y$ d X) a3 B P% F) a; H: J H' h( H$ u4 C
蓝筹项目:如$ai16z、$virtual和$aixbt等市值迅速攀升,部分实现翻倍增长。1 G& a$ _, \+ o' q$ v
7 T0 B9 e1 m" ?' t5 P9 k新兴项目:正经团队推出的AI项目表现稳健,例如$mates和$sora已获得市场认可。% R% H1 c) p, {% P/ c# z1 V9 G3 o
( F ^% r5 M ^. I3 u市场展望
6 v. z$ I+ p, ~8 X; Q( k/ V# ~
9 U# p, I, X8 M6 _随着宏观经济环境和政策明朗,加密市场有望迎来更多利好。山寨牛市或在第一季度爆发,AI、主流币、以及新兴应用赛道将继续成为市场焦点。 [( H0 p3 N- y: C% F+ P4 y
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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当前离线
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