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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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# Q, d! C8 }* @ w3 v) ]6 u# D" [9 A 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。
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; l# V' o5 @3 ^- `# G9 Z% o 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续: c) y! L# b" }! P/ j/ U3 i# q6 s2 V
]- W6 q, v$ I+ U' l4 j Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。+ k' l6 c8 {- G" ^' r% i
' R; C8 v4 i" F: n! |3 D( [! B& e 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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1 N. F. h/ Z3 h! C0 a0 F* m2 r 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。: N J1 M; ~2 \2 ~3 J- Q2 P1 p
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5 I% ^/ l/ I! q9 b8 j2 b5 d 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。9 m& P# R( V9 ~6 k8 D- C1 \0 w- G
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。$ C* f- ~: ?1 ]$ h% V( o
& O3 h& b6 I0 y$ K/ t. l3 T “从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间
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E6 K s* e7 @# L框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”% j: o- u% l8 C3 a0 z! S7 W
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: H( I3 S: W* c. X 知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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: ^7 W' `) h1 h& N7 o “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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3 H$ u; Z1 N- T& I f积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”+ u2 P2 K; s C4 e$ J2 p$ ^
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" U# `. O* b" ?1 l6 g7 l! T7 I 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。0 p% o8 A: X+ y8 O
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与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势' F" [- N8 E% i& P
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当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。
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, e- O) z( d% G3 b3 v# N' e8 Q8 A 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。1 J$ e$ W3 Z1 A3 M1 f$ T/ |6 f
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，; K/ X6 \+ m$ D5 ^5 X- _5 V
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”
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