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[虚拟币交流]
比特币交易员发出“超买”警告 比特币价格瞄准8.4万美元（转）
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+ ]% @* B6 o7 Y. ?: m9 V! _- D 比特币（BTC）在第一季度的最后一个华尔街交易日中有所走高，但比特币价格观点远未确信空头已经失去控制。
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- v2 r# j* c3 l7 n 3月31日华尔街开盘时段，比特币价格小幅走高，尽管交易者对短期走势仍持风险规避态度。9 D3 W4 Q; V$ C; @( R# z7 w$ V
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+ h5 j0 R1 p6 F 比特币相对强弱指数（RSI）暗示跌势或将延续
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1 u" i n# u# y$ b5 ] Cointelegraph Markets Pro与TradingView数据显示，Bitstamp交易所BTC/USD交易对当日上涨1.5%，最高触及8.3914万美元。3 M) L; o9 }: W: u$ h
' t* y( B" G+ N7 Q3 O) [* R 尽管美股开盘走低，但在季度收盘前的最后几小时，比特币仍迎来期待已久的反弹。
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) Z F0 q0 F1 B7 U, K2 S, e, F7 U [ 市场动能持续受4月2日即将生效的美国新关税政策影响，黄金在创下3128美元/盎司历史新高后亦出现回落。5 G" O4 F8 q7 z9 p. g3 }3 O! K( w
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+ R) O9 i: R7 S' ]4 ~* s- Z 针对比特币价格走势，多数市场参与者仍持谨慎态度。
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知名交易员Roman在最新X平台分析中针对4小时BTC/USD图表指出：“正在重新测试我们关注的关键84，000美元区域”。他在引用相对强弱指数（RSI）时预测，
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价格或将回落至更接近80，000美元关口的水平。3 L2 Q) n* j! E4 u
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“从短期框架（LTF）看，随着下行突破和看跌回测完成，我认为价格将开始走低，”Roman补充道，“同时RSI正在回测50中轴，而随机指标已显示超买。更高时间2 [7 h; Z4 B; S! Y( }
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框架（HTF）同样呈现看跌倾向。”
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知名交易分析师Rekt Capital进一步解读RSI信号，指出比特币在突破数月下降趋势线后，正在日线级别回测支撑位。
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, @7 T: n. H) z+ J) }% { “$BTC的RSI正试图将下降趋势线转化为支撑位，同时价格走势也面临下降趋势压力，”他向X平台粉丝总结道，“若RSI能成功守住趋势线支撑．．．将显示市场正在
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" u2 P4 w, L. E7 e积蓄动能，价格有望突破现行下降通道。”
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& Q/ q+ M9 ?# ?( Y! }+ u! [ 早前Cointelegraph报道指出，多项比特币价格指标共同勾勒出当前牛市阶段的疲软态势，暗示回调行情或将延续。
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: G$ I0 ?3 d: v6 W 与此同时，各预测平台给出的BTC目标价位已下探至6.5万美元，部分模型甚至显示更低预期。
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9 E( d. S' ]# V' |9 ]5 K0 V 比特币价格分析显现与2024年末相似走势2 G, b2 c2 T7 s0 j& W2 m& |
4 p: Y( H- Q" D* | 当前3月及第一季度的整体表现均未达市场预期。7 r, M1 W% F; e
% a1 p" R2 a) ]7 C 监测平台CoinGlass数据显示，在缺乏上行催化剂的背景下，截至发稿时BTC/USD年内累计下跌10.8%，3月单月跌幅达1.1%。
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该报告特别强调了比特币与美股日益增强的关联性：“尽管市场动荡，但近几周价格走势已在7.8万至8.8万美元区间形成整理格局。值得注意的是，1 B! r! A# |# ~ ^' R1 W8 {
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市场恐慌性抛售迹象正在缓解——反应性卖盘减少，而长期持有者已重启积累模式。”, i2 f7 J3 a" J5 H4 j& n6 U3 V
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