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美股波动性罕见超越新兴市场和比特币，同时一向被视为安全资产的美债剧烈波动，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。& i( U4 c. Y/ m* \8 q1 P+ c
5 Q9 \$ F$ K* e4 `" l" V8 r% d瑞银认为，一旦全球无风险利率出现波动，意味着所有市场都将被颠覆。分析师Ed Al-Hussainy更是一针见血地指出：“我其实不担心 v( {. q* j* }1 O ~& E& J
, g( J S0 B% Y+ T衰退，我担心的是金融危机。”
+ v# r1 a0 l, u1 ?8 B% q美股周五重回涨势，看上去市场风险偏好情绪恢复，但实际上投资者已经开始质疑美国资产的安全性，尤其是美债的剧烈波动，让金
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融危机的恐惧再次笼罩华尔街。
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% _9 ~" e M: u) O$ j) {) ]4 l) @# e过去一周，美国10年期国债收益率创下20多年来最大单周跳升，美股则跳水后又暴涨。表面上看，标普500指数周涨超5%，美债收益
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8 Q% p0 a9 ^5 T7 }& r0 g6 }; z率回到2月水平，比特币收盘走高，似乎一切如常。% f" a+ b' [$ f% a9 p7 r% i
$ @. f4 C% F. L' |9 U0 r
然而令人不安的是，本周美股、美债和美元同时下跌的现象，正是典型的新兴市场特征，而非全球最安全资产的表现。尤其本周美国
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' s3 j/ \% P; d$ W- s长债出现如此大的波动，流动性危机似乎就在眼前，这让投资者开始质疑持有美国资产的明智性。瑞银集团首席策略师巴努·巴韦贾更) r# ~, \ Z+ Q
8 ]! e7 z9 I" W: C$ c+ A是表示：$ c: J3 F3 x( f% U& V6 y* a% u
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这太可怕了。我们正在重新定义全球无风险利率，如果全球无风险利率出现波动，它将颠覆所有市场。# R/ i1 l# l" ^- y; G" L
( @+ w: ?; _' y' ^8 U& e历史罕见，美国资产波动性超越新兴市场和比特币) l- V( g7 [. b/ G# r$ v: k5 Q5 A# v
: y* {9 b4 `) {& Y) {1 f特朗普最近的关税政策不仅损害了对美国经济的信心，也动摇了投资者对美国政策方向和美元资产的信任。即使以华尔街漫长的历史
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7 |9 K3 P7 w1 J$ z标准来看，本周都是一个惨烈的交易周，美股像是坐上了过山车，美债美元的走势更是暗示美国避险地位似乎不保了：
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周一，因所谓的乌龙关税消息，美股上演15分钟脉冲式巨震，纳指一度低位暴拉10%，美债跳水。; S* B. W- b8 X3 @9 `) L7 I2 b' z% d
9 o3 ]0 o; T; w- e. o周二，不会关税豁免的消息粉碎美股反弹希望，道指盘中高位狂泻超2000点，标普抹平超4%涨幅转跌，美国国债市场则出现去杠杆式大跌。 V' z) z3 f4 W7 F2 R( |, ?/ W
; p* l; g l, Q. G9 Y- ?; v周三，美国暂缓部分关税，三大美股指至少收涨近8%，标普创2008年来最大涨幅，美股交易量创下300亿股的历史新高。十年期美债- d- }' L) i4 e1 F$ Z {
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收益率冲高回落。4 r e& D( N. j
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周四，全球投资者逃离美国资产，美国股债汇三杀，纳指跌超4%，美元两年来最大日跌，黄金新高。
, h% I4 P( r2 p! T0 C0 G( Q( Q& t9 P" w6 V( r- i* T0 g' z: x. G
周五，美联储暗示或出手，美股反弹收涨，但美债美元的跌势，警示着美国避险天堂的地位似乎不保了。
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3 |9 G$ Z3 W& k9 |0 D% d. `Loomis, Sayles & Company的投资经理Andrea DiCenso表示："美国市场是否开始表现得像新兴市场？毫无疑问，$ v! e( _) a e' c& f& q
* l5 M# s8 J* ^% [; \# o5 P9 ~是的，这正是我们所看到的。"
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根据数据显示，美股ETF的波动性甚至超过了追踪新兴市场的基金，也一度高于比特币。这种情况除了疫情、去0 L9 N: L2 A8 U: Y- C; h
+ z0 z9 h. B$ ~8 @+ [3 g年8月危机和美联储激进加息时期外，几乎从未出现。9 j e c: k0 M; X! _7 N/ n
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Renaissance Capital的Neil Dutta在给客户的邮件中直言："标普500指数像加密货币一样交易，这可能不是好事。"
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其实如果以价格行为来看的话就是提前做了超大回调，但是会不会转趋势就另外说了 |
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