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[lastpost] => 2798999 特拉华州人寿与贝莱德合作，通过固定指数年金提供比特币投资机会。（转） 1768958597 jackcool1011
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[虚拟币交流]
期权数据显示，比特币到6月底有30%的概率跌破8万美元。（转）
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在唐纳德·特朗普总统发表关税言论后，比特币 (BTC) 价格跌破 91,000 美元，来自去中心化交易场所的数据显示，未来几个月价格可能出现更大幅度的暴跌。
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Derive.xyz（一个用于链上期权、永续合约和结构化产品的去中心化协议）上的交易员认为，到 6 月底，比特币跌破 80,000 美元的可能性为 30%。
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0 a$ p; q6 R$ p% ], Y% D; r& ^/ G8 ZDerive.xyz 研究主管 Sean Dawson 博士告诉 CoinDesk：“期权市场显示出明显的下行偏斜，到 6 月 26 日，比特币跌破 8 万美元的概率为 30%，而同期上涨至 12 万美元以上的概率为 19%。”
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期权是一种衍生合约，它允许你像在体育比赛中下注一样，对比特币的价格进行押注。运作方式如下：你支付少量费用来锁定一个“假设”交易。如果比特币价格上涨到某个预先设定的价格水平以上，你就能以低价买入，从而获得丰厚的利润。这就是看涨期权。% |( M2 _, P7 z& u8 R! f
5 w+ `% m9 C) ^' o$ B: x' E如果价格跌破预设水平，你就可以通过高位卖出获利。这就是看跌期权。无论哪种情况，如果市场走势与预期不符，你都可能损失买入费和期权费。# h- w& B* R) r1 J4 R. Z. X
' ~9 W1 ]1 l7 ~0 F7 n; [. [& j正是这种众包价格猜测揭示了人们对比特币价格跌破 80,000 美元的可能性高达 30% 的担忧。
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此举将使比特币价格跌至 2025 年 4 月以来的最低水平。当时，由于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普对其他国家的进口商品加征关税，比特币价格暴跌至 75,000 美元，全球市场因此受到冲击。
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2 U6 w( Y; ], }- Y/ V {特朗普总统周末威胁要对来自10个欧洲国家的进口商品加征10%的关税，原因是这些国家反对他吞并格陵兰岛的计划，此举再次引发了人们对关税的担忧。比特币价格也从95,000美元跌至91,000美元。
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4 B* g0 g6 J! N Y% G- \* K道森认为，这些地缘ZZ紧张局势可能会导致更大的损失。. y/ l5 y; a& v$ \6 p
- {) k( T$ ?5 {/ }. M“美国和欧洲之间日益加剧的地缘ZZ紧张局势——尤其是在格陵兰岛附近——增加了政权更迭、重新回到高波动性环境的风险，而这种动态目前尚未反映在现货价格中，”他说道。* S( M9 g1 f3 k' E9 ~) r
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他解释说，期权偏斜度（衡量看涨期权和看跌期权价格差异的指标）仍然为负值，这意味着短期内存在下行风险。Deribit 等中心化衍生品交易平台的交易活动也印证了这一点。
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在Derive和Deribit平台上，行权价在75,000美元至80,000美元之间的看跌期权未平仓合约非常集中。这意味着市场预期价格将下跌至70,000美元中段。3 Q8 _2 n" c2 R& j
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30%概率破8万？这波赌特朗普关税继续砸盘，8万以下准备抄底！ |
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这波行情真是让人捏把汗，期权都开始唱空了，看来得稳住心态别乱动 |
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Derive.xyz这数据挺有意思，下行概率比上行还高，看来市场有点虚啊 |
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