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[lastpost] => 2799158 比特币跌至 88,348 美元：空头掌控局面？（转） 1769000590 小作文
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比特币减半、比特币ETF获批、美联储降息这三件事被越来越多人
2 ~/ O& F) W# m9 h/ J( Q* p4 ^ _+ r3 I/ T2 g" y3 _
认为推动加密牛市的发动机。毫无疑问，比特币正在进入宏观金融世界，
% b! b8 ?7 m5 {9 H( o& a7 b* r5 {. c9 G& O6 w1 M
而传统金融大门向比特币彻底打开，迎接比特币的则是继承上一代财富# W5 e+ Z/ K- `* y3 _/ z+ Z/ e
" N" O. T+ @4 q
的千禧一代。
2 }: a, n; e$ Q从比特币减半周期维度看，目前比特币确实已经进入新阶段。根据PlanB
, r$ o5 o2 \" q( @- D
7 ^5 E0 V* T, j* k4 n# ?的S2F模型看，目前，比特币已经进入”减半前 6 个月 – 减半后 18 个月“0 z" f" U7 v5 Z3 D
5 s. [( B7 V9 C M3 U- O. a7 n
时期，在这个阶段，买入并持有的收益很好。除了比特币减半临近，加, N! r3 U& ?1 t" f% q0 R9 G- }
# b. b& P& a5 I! C0 G1 g密资产监管合规之路出现重要转折点，比特币ETF推出似也呼之欲出。据
4 E) k& {5 ^5 E% t8 \8 A: u( N. d0 [# o1 I! s5 l3 l$ j
《比推》报道，2023年8月，法庭文件显示，华盛顿一个由三名法官组成8 Y! W5 S" J5 Y6 A; ~
6 q# G4 ~: k. K# ~8 H/ t
的上诉小组推翻了美国证交会（SEC）阻止灰度 ETF 的决定。据《比推》- H+ s7 Z8 X" O9 [. ]' f1 A0 q
/ t( D7 | c) h: p; u! s1 I
报道，在Ripple案中，10 月 3 日，法官Torres 驳回了 SEC的上诉请求；
2 Z& U8 ~- l' @8 k+ d- P4 c" I }$ B! t
10月19日，灰度在X平台发文表示已提交了S-3表格，作为将GBTC转换为
4 M6 h& U4 p4 q4 f1 {% T
* h/ }, e- ^7 q( p9 P5 nETF的努力的一部分。” 从近期美联储谈话看，美联储降息也基本确定。
7 u( ]; v; H8 O. S- N) V( i4 D) a% r0 w
) M: G+ q( Z0 E据《比推》报道，美联储主席鲍威尔近日在新闻发布会上明确表达：降) ?7 I' S# ~# B6 F
" p2 p! a" y C/ P7 h n息已经进入决策视野，决策者正在思考、讨论合适降息合适。5 o5 d9 N9 t. R
8 s- A( R3 a+ r4 P. E+ f0 z5 L8 H" e
与巨大利好预期相对应的则是，千禧一代一边继承财富，一边拥抱加密0 A5 A( \( F. }9 ]
) I1 W1 \3 Y* ^ E2 p; d
世界。据Galaxy研报显示：千禧一代即将迎来有史以来最大规模的财富5 w8 C& k1 f9 D- p/ D# O# S4 e
4 {( ~4 V& ^5 ^3 Q0 ]5 N传承。尽管婴儿潮一代和更年长的一代只占美国成年人口的三分之一不
$ m0 ?1 h4 ^; k1 r7 N: I1 i9 H' f( i) S, j! d
到，但却共同拥有美国家庭财富的三分之二（96 万亿美元），是千禧一8 K( d# C% H9 L3 e9 w) y
+ E, ~ P e8 e( Z2 g2 i
代及更年轻一代财富的 11 倍以上。受到多次经济衰退、高昂的住房成7 ?- c' b. G7 ^1 T% \5 Z
5 ~% u& z! z, i9 K' s/ i本和沉重的债务负担的影响，这些年轻一代更愿意接受替代性的金融体; N1 k6 o1 }! D {% O* k
% X1 B9 r* l% G
系和投资，包括加密货币。许多调查显示，这一代相较父辈，对加密货
5 H' x* f0 A6 h7 C `0 q/ m% o6 p* |1 A
币的采用或接受率至少高出 3 倍。估算表明，财富转移的影响可能导致+ E/ B8 s8 M9 V( T5 k7 M
$ L' p4 r. \" Q! `( _未来 20 年内加密市场每天增加 2000 万至 2800 万美元的购买力。财富! r; J$ @& g7 z8 Y& ]
7 F8 U) Q5 v# S, H9 F0 z; l
/权力向年轻一代的人口结构转变是不可避免的，这对加密货币是个好兆头。 e% {" B7 D/ @6 L" [8 K
/ p: g7 z8 U% t$ Z# M, D1 J
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