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[lastpost] => 2797665 币安币看来也是站稳了900美元啦 1768553557 rainwang
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随着价格的整合,比特币的需求已降至近几周的最低水平。然而,交易所比特币供应的减少使得价格大幅下跌成为可能。) I9 \# A# e0 ^/ B/ m: ?
自8月5日从下跌中恢复以来,比特币[BTC]的交易区间在56K-62K美元之间。 H" C+ N% j# E |
) E9 {% b" _% C, E$ r7 Y- \% |. Q2 J! T自8月8日以来,价格没有跌破或超过这一区间,这表明可能会出现盘整或市场不确定性。
$ t# d) g% R. ?' o7 m8 J/ M
/ `( j K, o7 @阻止该区域以上出现重大突破的因素之一是比特币需求增长疲软,根据CryptoQuant的数据,比特币需求仍处于较低水平。最近几周,这甚至变成了负面的。
3 _% P0 U2 {3 }: S- P& u
) S- e% M- r6 k, s' u0 T2024年4月,比特币的需求达到了三年来的峰值,恰逢比特币减半事件。然而,自那以后,它已降至今年的最低水平。- z& e6 |, Z1 i: d- X( D1 C
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那么,为什么比特币的需求会下降呢?
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- @7 H5 L1 I; @0 M观察ETF和鲸鱼活动
# `. u7 j/ a) h8 Y分析指出,流入现货比特币ETF的资金正在枯竭。3月,随着BTC飙升至历史高点,比特币ETF的平均每日购买量为12500 BTC。; P/ e/ C; h5 ? o; J
# f3 k' R8 F6 W( {& D2 ]6 r上周降至1300 BTC。& v* M6 M, C p0 z: P2 j
+ o" X0 S7 Y& w/ Q9 R4 Q# ]
从SoSoValue上可以看出,自8月9日以来,流入现货比特币ETF的资金总额一直低于1亿美元大关。虽然这些产品拥有超过550亿美元的净资产,但需要购买活动来提振整体需求。" t5 ], o% F {* c, [0 u
' `' Y! Q4 c' [* }6 t+ T
鲸鱼似乎也在减少他们的比特币股份。30天平均鲸鱼持有量已从2月份的6%降至1%。这是自2021年2月以来每个CryptoQuant的最快下降。- E: _. ]& z6 P6 d9 {# {9 X# N
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鲸鱼在支持比特币价格增长方面发挥着至关重要的作用。鲸鱼持有量的减少表明整个市场普遍看跌。
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Santiment的数据进一步证实了鲸鱼活动的减少,该数据显示,自3月以来,持有1000至10000枚比特币的比特币地址大幅下降。 T% ? i: h6 G7 V
% i- G9 |: r1 F' {! \- q: Y
尽管鲸鱼活动放缓,但长期比特币持有者增加了头寸。这些持有者一直在以每月约391000 BTC的速度增加他们的BTC持有量。& z% A" B* h# d9 v" N' a, d! N
; H" c u+ l+ S; [; A比特币会突破其区间吗?5 p8 B/ f7 o# P* @( O" h
随着对比特币需求的放缓,人们不禁要问,比特币是否会突破5.6万至6.2万美元的区间。对链上数据的深入研究描绘了一幅严峻的画面。
: _% c5 U, T+ x( U( f& z
" g5 C- ~' s3 W/ C4 G% H1 \+ q根据IntoTheBlock的数据,超过300万个地址以这个价格范围购买了比特币。以这些价格买入的新投资者并没有获得可观的利润。: q! B- x ?/ G# |
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因此,突破62000美元将面临抛售压力,因为他们急于获利。. X' |; m, i# [! i
! a h4 @3 W- ~2 E2 T1 }5 p3 _
技术指标也无法证明突破的必要性。相对强弱指数(RSI)也保持区间震荡,购买势头没有显著飙升。' u, U' P+ ^( J: R9 D
& B5 c( p; C& \# m) _; b
位于积极区域的Awesome Oscillator显示出上升趋势。然而,短直方图条指向可能减弱的上升趋势。
, Z8 l5 X1 D% T+ N7 _$ W然而,由于交易所比特币供应量下降,短期内不太可能出现低于当前范围的急剧下降趋势。
8 z8 J% d6 J& ^1 |5 O, o3 B) \ Y6 a& [- ?
根据CryptoQuant的数据,交易所供应比率在过去一年中急剧下降。因此,尽管需求明显较低,但外汇供应也较低,从而降低了大幅回调的风险。
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